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Tammy Baldwin, Eric Hovde battle over undecided voters in tight race

Posted on by L. Dreeye
Tammy Baldwin, Eric Hovde battle over undecided voters in tight race

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MADISON – For months, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin has warned that she’s in one of the toughest races of her career.

She might be right.

The increasingly bitter battle between Baldwin and Republican banker Eric Hovde has hit its final days. Tensions are at a high point as Baldwin has accused Hovde of unfairly attacking her personal life, and Hovde has claimed Baldwin is spreading lies about him in her ads.

Baldwin’s months-long lead has notably narrowed, and both campaigns are now fighting over the few remaining undecided voters in the waning days of a race critical to the balance of the Senate.

“It’s a tug of war, as it has been in the past,” said John Kraus, a Democratic strategist who has worked on several Wisconsin campaigns, including past Baldwin races. “And I think Democrats are conditioned to this reality so we don’t get distracted by pollsters polling.”

Brandon Scholz, a retired Republican strategist, put it this way: “Get out your favorite shiny quarter, flip it, and that’s gonna help you make a decision. I think it’s that close.”

A Marquette University Law School poll released Wednesday showed Baldwin up just two points on Hovde among likely voters — well within the poll’s margin of error. Other recent surveys have shown Baldwin with a similar one-to-two-point edge as the race has turned increasingly nasty down the stretch.

Among the factors that have tightened the race in recent weeks: Partisan voters are getting behind their party’s candidate, dimming the prospects Baldwin will see the kind of Republican support she gained in her 2018 race, when former President Donald Trump was not on the ballot and she won by about 11 points.

The recent Marquette survey showed more Republicans getting behind Hovde than months prior — 93% of registered Republican voters compared to about 88% at the end of July — a normal campaign trend as more Republican voters have become familiar with Hovde. The poll also showed Baldwin winning over 97% of registered Democrats and the majority of independents.

“Partisans are more aligned in their vote now than they were, so there’s less crossover vote and less uncertainty about who you’re voting for,” said Charles Franklin, the Marquette poll’s director.

Republican shift messaging to culture war issues

The tightening comes as Republicans have shifted much of their attention to social and cultural war issues and zeroed in on Baldwin’s personal life, straying from the more traditional attacks on Democrats over the economy and southern border.

Hovde and Republican groups have cut a handful of advertisements attacking Baldwin on transgender issues, something Republicans have done across the country and in the presidential race.

And Baldwin’s relationship with her partner Maria Brisbane, a New York private wealth adviser, has come under the microscope. Hovde has presented the relationship as a potential conflict of interest, though Democrats have claimed the messaging is a crass attempt to remind voters Baldwin is gay, with one ad proclaiming “Baldwin is in bed with Wall Street.” Baldwin is the country’s first openly gay senator.

In a handful of recent speeches, Hovde has accused both Baldwin and Vice President Kamala Harris of wanting to “remake” and “redefine” what he’s called the “traditional family.”

Both Republican and Democratic strategists in the state have suggested the social attacks could have helped move the needle for Hovde with base Republican voters. But many Democrats, including Baldwin herself, have labeled the attacks on her personal relationship as out-of-bounds.

Scholz, the former Republican strategist, suggested the strategy shift is an attempt to reach a sliver of voters who have not been swayed by the top-line issues they’ve heard so far.

“If they’re not moving people by now, they’re not going to move by Tuesday, so they’ve got to find some other things,” Scholz said of the earlier messaging.

Democratic strategist Joe Zepecki noted both sides have launched pointed attacks but said the Republican focus on transgender issues is characteristic of today’s divisive politics.

“I will never get over, no matter what happens, the irony of Republicans expecting us to believe and telling us with a straight face the No. 1 issue is the economy while airing more ads on trans issues that impact a vanishingly small segment of the population in the closing weeks of this campaign,” he said. “That just does not comfort with reality that they have been trying to convince us exists.”

Recently, Republican groups have appeared to take a page out of Baldwin’s playbook in attacking her. One ad from the Senate Leadership Fund, a GOP outside group, says: “What happened to Tammy Baldwin? She’s changed and now sides with the extreme left.”

The attack echoed a Baldwin ad aimed at former Republican Gov. Tommy Thompson during her first campaign for Senate in 2012. At the time, Baldwin cut ads saying Thompson had “changed” since he was a popular governor. One ad said: “What’s happened to Tommy Thompson?… He’s not for you anymore.”

Baldwin and Democrats, meanwhile, have persistently cast Hovde as out-of-touch with Wisconsinites over his ties to California, where he owns a multi-million dollar home. They’ve also used many of Hovde’s past and more recent statements against him, including remarks that overweight people should pay more for healthcare, those questioning the ability of nursing home residents to vote and comments that he understands Black culture because he’s done work in Africa .

Several of Baldwin’s ads end with the question, “What is wrong with this guy?”

“Eric Hovde has done something to offend just about anybody,” said one Democratic strategist.

Hovde has pushed back on the California attacks and accused Baldwin of lying about other positions he’s taken, including on his plans for Social Security and federal spending. He and his campaign have declined to speak with the Journal Sentinel.

Hovde benefited from the absence of a contested partisan primary

Outside of the back-and-forth attacks, top Republicans in the state have also pointed to the lack of a damaging GOP primary as another reason Hovde has been able to close the gap with Baldwin. Wisconsin Republicans ran through bruising primaries in Senate races in 2012, when Hovde last ran, and 2018. The party has also struggled following primaries in recent gubernatorial and state Supreme Court races.

This year Hovde’s entrance into the race with his pledge to self-fund – he’s spent at least $20 million of his own money so far – cleared the field of any other viable contenders.

“Part of my goal as chair was to avoid a tough primary there, a nasty primary, rather,” said Republican Party of Wisconsin chair Brian Schimming. “I’ve made the point I don’t know how many times to people that our history when we’ve lost in Wisconsin, generally, is because we’ve had a nasty primary.”

Trump running neck-and-neck with Harris in the state has also helped, Schimming noted.

Voters across the state, meanwhile, have appeared stuck in their own camps.

Hovde drew big cheers when he was introduced at both of Trump’s recent rallies in Ashwaubenon and Milwaukee. Rally attendees told the Journal Sentinel they were voting for Hovde because he is a conservative, with some citing opposition to Baldwin.

“I wouldn’t give a dime for Tammy Baldwin,” said Lori Larson of Oak Creek, who cited the “conservative ticket” as her reason for voting for Hovde. “I’m going that route. I haven’t been here long enough to know enough about him, to research him, but I’m going straight Republican.”

“I don’t think her supporting certain movements and measures and things — I don’t think the majority of Wisconsinites agree with her,” said Jane Chovanec of New Berlin outside Trump’s recent rally at Fiserv Forum. She did not cite specific measures.

Baldwin supporters across the state pointed to issues like reproductive rights as motivators in the race. One Milwaukee man at an event with former Democratic President Bill Clinton recently said Baldwin “saved my pension.”

“With all of the things that Tammy has done for Wisconsin, she really has our back,” said Renee Gralewicz, a 65-year-old Appleton resident. “She’s helped farmers, small businesses, and I really hope people remember that and support her for the things she’s been doing and her dreams for the future.”

Ben Nives of Appleton had this to say: “I think she’s served us well, or at least well enough.” And I’m not gonna let some carpetbagger from California take that.”

Both candidates are underwater in their favorability ratings in the recent Marquette survey, with Baldwin at -5 (45% favorable, 50% unfavorable and 5% who don’t know enough about her) and Hovde sitting at -12 (36% favorable, 48% unfavorable and 15% who don’t know enough about him). But Franklin, the pollster, said that’s not a surprise given the “deluge of negative ads” in the final stretch of the campaign.

And while the race has edged toward a tossup, some Republicans in the state have said they believe Trump will have to overperform current projections in the state to pull Hovde through the finish line.

Democrats have claimed they are feeling more confident after raising alarms last month about a flood of Republican outside spending in the state. A Baldwin campaign official noted they’ve seen the race “stabilize” with a slight Baldwin lead, adding they “have the momentum in this race and we feel confident going into” the final days.

“We’re a battleground state, and it’s still neck-and-neck,” Baldwin recently told the Journal Sentinel. “It’s gonna come to turnout, and that’s why we’re traveling the state and trying to boost turnout.”

Several Democrats have said Baldwin, who has never lost a race in her 38 years in politics, has prepared for this scenario.

“Her campaign, in my opinion, has been ready from Day One and has run this entire race as if it’s a one- or two-point race, even when she was up by a bunch,” said Mike Tate, former chair of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin who is active in races for Democrats across the state.

He referenced, in part, the more than $50 million Baldwin raised throughout the cycle.

“This isn’t like they were asleep at the switch,” Tate said. “They’ve been putting in place a plan this entire time for a tight race.”

Sophie Carson of the Journal Sentinel and Kelli Arseneau and Faith Huey of the Post-Crescent contributed reporting.