Revisiting projections after Indiana’s 38-15 loss to Ohio State

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. — On the heels of No. 5 Indiana’s 38-15 loss to No. 2 Ohio State, the College Football Playoff situation looked grim for the Hoosiers.

The Hoosiers lost by 23 points and didn’t look very competitive against the Buckeyes, especially on offense. Combine Indiana’s first loss with its weak schedule, and the Hoosiers have put themselves in worst-case scenario mode with the College Football Playoff committee.

However, Indiana played at noon. There was still a lot of college football to be played in Week 13, and much of it was bright for the Hoosiers’ playoff prospects.

One game that was played at the same time as the Indiana game was No. 9 Ole Miss at Florida. The Gators, who competed against most of the ranked teams they played, finally broke through and lost to the Rebels, 24-17. It was the third loss for Ole Miss and was considered the fatal Rubicon it had to cross in playoff qualifying.

The SEC will present many more surprises before the end of the day.

The 3:30 p.m. window was quieter, although Minnesota pushed No. 4 Penn State to the limit before the Nittany Lions survived, 26-25.

The night games gave Indiana a much-needed boost.

First, No. 6 Notre Dame routed No. 19 Army 49-14. It may seem like it won’t help the Hoosiers – the Fighting Irish will overtake Indiana in the rankings. But if Army beat Notre Dame, the Black Knights would still be undefeated with a quality win that Indiana doesn’t have.

The SEC came up with some really big surprises. No. 7 Alabama, considered the safest two-losing team, laid an egg in Oklahoma, losing 24-3. The Crimson Tide will almost certainly miss the playoffs, although they always seem to conjure up Lazarus’ act of defying the odds.

Meanwhile, the other half of Alabama was living large. Auburn, a 4-6 team, led No. 15 Texas A&M for much of the game before the Aggies took the lead late. The Tigers got into field goal position to tie the game and force overtime.

Three overtimes could not solve the situation. In the fourth overtime, with few two-point conversion attempts left by now, Auburn’s KeAndre Lambert-Smith made an acrobatic catch to give the Tigers two points.

Texas A&M cleverly deployed a wildcat formation to free up quarterback Marcel Reed. Terry Bussey was wide open in the end zone, but the ball hit his hands and fell incomplete as Auburn closed the game 43-41.

Ole Miss, Alabama or even Texas A&M (the Aggies would be alive to become bet stealers if they beat Texas and make it to the SEC title game) could pass Indiana in the rankings. It is quite possible that the Army could do this too.

None of these teams will get past the Hoosiers, and while Indiana will likely fall to Notre Dame, Miami, Georgia, Tennessee and possibly SMU, Indiana should still be in the playoff field when Tuesday’s 8 p.m. pm ET, new rankings will be announced.

The Hoosiers weren’t doing well in Columbus, but things started looking up for them later on Saturday.

Here are three key developments this week and the forecast for the Ohio State game:

1. Ohio State running game

Indiana coach Curt Cignetti noted that Indiana’s defense was solid overall. Indiana’s defense looked good until TreVeyon Henderson ran for 39 yards.

“You run out here and the total offense is less than 300 yards. Not bad,” Cignetti said.

The Buckeyes averaged 4 yards per carry. Henderson rushed for 68 yards (39 on his final carry) and Quinshawn Judkins was held to 36 yards. Shall we enter the game? You would take it. When Ohio State needed yards, it was the passing game that largely provided it. Indiana did a solid job against the run.

2. Indiana needs to revive its running game.

Indiana has done well in this regard as well. Ty Son Lawton rushed for a game-high 79 yards and averaged a very good 5.3 yards per carry. Judge Ellison had 62 yards. Collectively, they averaged 4.4 yards per carry, which is pretty good for Ohio State’s defensive front.

Indiana rushed for a total of 83 yards thanks to five sacks by quarterback Kurtis Rourke and a 23-yard loss on a James Evans punt. The running backs and blockers did their job. Unfortunately for the Hoosiers, the Buckeyes completely shut down their passing game.

3. Tighten up in the red zone

Indiana entered the game ranked 87th in red zone defense, as opponents scored against them 86.4% of the time. Indiana improved its performance against the Buckeyes as Ohio State hit 66.7% of its red zone percentage.

The most notable stop came at Indiana’s 2-yard line early in the second quarter. Ohio State had a chance to close the gap first, driving to the 1-yard line, but Mikail Kamara and James Carpenter punted on Judkins to no avail. The other stop was an interception by Jaylin Walker at the Indiana 11-yard line.

Indiana’s problem wasn’t the stoppage ratio, but how many times a stoppage had to be called. In Thursday’s Three Keys article, we noted that the best red zone defense is to “keep Ohio State out of the red zone completely.” This did not happen. Six red zone opportunities are too many for Ohio State.

Forecast

Admittedly, the prediction of Indiana’s 24-21 victory was made more with the heart than the brain. In 2024, Indiana rose to the challenge, often decisively. So why lose faith in the most important game of the season?

The three keys chosen do indicate Indiana’s strengths against the Buckeyes, but the keys chosen may have been incorrect. Passage protection was an obvious issue, as was noise. And I don’t think anyone expected Indiana’s previously bulletproof special teams to struggle as much as they did.

It was a tough day at the office, but the Hoosiers live on and no one should give up hope of the College Football Playoff.

Who knows? By 7:00 pm ET on Saturday when Indiana and Purdue kick off a very cold Old Oaken Bucket game? Indiana may be playing for higher stakes than anyone expected after the disappointment in Columbus.