Ukraine: Putin is unlikely to sit down at the negotiating table, no matter who wins the US elections

CNN
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Russia is watching US policy like a hawk.

This was the message from Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky to journalists last week in Kyiv when he answered a question about Moscow’s readiness for negotiations. “It depends on the US elections,” he said.

If elected, Kamala Harris is expected to largely continue the Biden administration’s policies that supported Ukraine despite some controversies, such as using Western weapons to strike deep inside Russia.

Taking a very different tack, Donald Trump suggested he would end support for Kyiv’s war efforts and said he could resolve the war “in one day.” The terms of the peace plan proposed by his vice-presidential candidate J.D. Vance, are strikingly similar to Putin’s wish list.

American politics is at a crossroads, but that won’t necessarily lead to a turning point in peace talks, analysts say.

That’s because there is nothing to indicate that Russia is willing to come to the negotiating table, regardless of who ends up in the White House.

“What (Trump) thinks he can do, what leverage he has, is unclear at this point — but I don’t think it’s a quick process,” said Thomas Graham, an expert on Russian foreign policy and a distinguished fellow at the Council on foreign affairs. Relationship.

However, experts say cuts in US aid spending may well lead to changes on the battlefield.

With any potential president, Putin will seek to exploit what he sees as political dysfunction in the United States as well as “cracks in Western unity,” Graham told CNN.

Those cracks could come in the form of the Trump administration cutting US aid and a diminished role in NATO or a split in the US Congress, among other factors. Financial pressure on European allies also plays a role, as does divisions within NATO with pro-Russian leadership in member countries such as Hungary and Slovakia.

“In the absence of Western unity, in the absence of a clear demonstration that the West and Ukraine have a common vision of what they are trying to achieve… Putin has no reason to reconsider what he is doing in Ukraine at the moment,” Graham added.

The scale of the war is also too large for simple negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv, experts say. They argue that this is a much broader conflict between Russia and the West.

For Putin, “Ukraine is just a means to an end, and the goal is to further limit U.S. influence in international affairs,” said John Lough, a fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the London-based think tank Chatham House.

“When (Trump’s) advisers explain to him what’s really going on here and the fact that China has played a key role in maintaining Russia’s ability to continue fighting this war … he may suddenly feel very strongly that he is not so well disposed towards Putin.” , Lough said, adding that Beijing would perceive any concessions “as another sign of US weakness.”

This contradicts Trump’s tough rhetoric about the threat posed by China.

War of attrition plays into Putin’s hands

Ukraine is already outnumbered, and Putin appears willing to accept large numbers of casualties. According to NATO, more than 600,000 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded.

“The enemy is building up its troops to oust the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the Kursk region at any cost,” said Oleg Shiryaev, commander of the 225th Separate Assault Battalion, which is taking part in Ukraine’s surprise invasion across the Russian border. “The main element of Russia in this war is the number of its troops – these are powerful attacks and offensive actions. They do this on all parts of the front line.”

In the Zaporozhye region of Ukraine, another commander of the Ukrainian Security Service said: “By sending large numbers of personnel into battle as cannon fodder, they are trying to gain a foothold in the gray zones of the front.” The officer, who asked to be identified by the call sign “Banker,” which means “accountant,” told CNN that the complex system of fortifications in Zaporozhye is helping Ukraine defend its front line.

But Kyiv knows that this is not enough. On Wednesday, Ukraine’s parliament voted to extend martial law and conscription for another 90 days. It is planned to call up another 160 thousand people, the National Security Council said.

Ukrainian soldiers who spoke to CNN said Russia has other advantages, such as countless drones, expensive planes and more vehicles that allow it to fight in the muddy fall and winter.

According to military personnel, Ukraine needs support from both its infantry and equipment.

“We have ammunition, but as the artillerymen say, there is never enough,” said Vitaly Milovidov, a spokesman for the National Guard’s 15th Brigade, who is fighting in the eastern Donetsk region, where Russian troops continue to gradually gain momentum.

If a potential Trump administration cuts US aid, Ukraine will become increasingly outgunned.

European countries are scrambling to increase ammunition production for Ukraine to prevent a rollback if US support is withdrawn.

But even if U.S. policy continues on its current trajectory, Kyiv’s Western allies appear unprepared to commit the level of resources needed to achieve major military successes.

“My guess is that this will continue, perhaps at a lower intensity, but for a long time,” Chatham House’s Loh added. “The Harris administration will certainly not sell out the Ukrainians, but it will really test their Ukrainian resolve and whether they are willing to continue to fight this war of attrition.”

This is why Putin’s strategy also seems aimed at demoralizing the population of Ukraine.

Russia has repeatedly attacked civilians and civilian infrastructure. It has also crippled Ukraine’s energy grid, adding to the woes of ordinary Ukrainians facing a winter blighted by a lack of heating and water.

Analysts say the Ukrainian population is certainly exhausted, but it also doesn’t seem ready to settle down in any way. Following the massacres of civilians in Bucha and Mariupol, the brutal treatment of Ukrainian prisoners in Russian custody, and the forced deportation of Ukrainian children by the Russian state, they are awakened to the harsh realities of Russian occupation.

Zelensky, meanwhile, continues to call for support from both sides. If Trump “just wants to force Ukraine to give up everything and thus come to an agreement with Russia, I don’t think that’s possible,” he said Thursday.