Should Ohio State move ahead of Georgia in the CFB rankings if they beat Penn State?

There’s a good chance Ohio State’s season will be on the line Saturday as Ryan Day brings his Buckeyes to Beaver Stadium for a top-five showdown against undefeated Penn State. After a loss to Oregon and a terrible shaky appearance last weekend against Nebraska, anxiety is high around Columbus: With a loss in this game, you could likely kiss your Big Ten title—and even the College Football Playoff football – with hope of goodbye.

Win, however, and suddenly everything goes back to normal. A win over the nation’s fourth-ranked team in a hostile environment would be one of the most impressive victories any team could claim on its resume this season — and could propel the Buckeyes even higher in college football’s rankings. . While a head-to-head loss to Oregon means first place is out of the question, what about second place? Let’s break down the history of the Ohio State-Georgia matchup if OSU comes out on top in Happy Valley on Saturday.

First, let’s recap heading into Week 10. Both Ohio State and Georgia have one loss, both in competitive games on the road against teams that were considered among the best in the country at the time. But while Oregon seemed to improve after facing the Buckeyes, Alabama went into a tailspin with a loss to Vanderbilt and a near upset at home to South Carolina. Considering each team’s trajectories in the coming weeks, as well as the fact that the Dawgs nearly ran out of Bryant-Denny Stadium before mounting a wild second-half comeback, you’d have to give Ohio State a slight edge in this particular one. comparison.

But which team has the most impressive collection of victories is another story. Georgia had perhaps the best win of any team this season: while Oregon beat Ohio State at home thanks to some late-game shenanigans, the Dawgs ran roughshod over Texas on the road in perhaps the most convincing the team has looked all year. considering the opponent and the moment. Georgia also picked up a big non-conference win, beating a Clemson team that has since proven to be one of the best in the ACC. On the other hand, Ohio State played three Group of 5 teams, and not particularly good ones. The Buckeyes’ best win thus far may be at home over Iowa, and with all due respect to Kirk Ferentz and company, it doesn’t mean what it once did.

Ohio State’s other Power 5 wins came at Michigan State and at home against Nebraska in a game it lost in the fourth quarter. Georgia isn’t immune to some clunkers itself—maybe it should have lost on the road to a bad Kentucky team and played its own meal against Mississippi State—but the Dawgs’ best wins probably give it a small resume overall. . But will that hold if Ohio State adds Penn State to the list?

The answer probably comes down to how this victory occurs. If Ohio State largely controls the game and wins by a large margin, then yes, they should probably take the second seed to the Dawgs. That would give the Buckeyes a win as significant as Georgia’s win at Texas, if not more, and Ohio State’s tougher loss would likely be enough to get them over the hump. Yes, the rest of the resume isn’t as strong, but Georgia’s win over Clemson shouldn’t outweigh the fact that the Buckeyes’ only downside was the narrowest possible margin of victory against the best team in the country. Additionally, Ohio State only has one nervy win (the Nebraska game), compared to Georgia’s two (they were never in danger of losing to Mississippi State, but the Bulldogs are among the worst teams in the Power 5 this year).

However, if the game is close – if it looks like Ohio State has run away rather than proven itself to be the better team – voters will likely still favor Georgia, provided the Dawgs do a convincing enough job against a mediocre Florida team. Georgia has proven how high its ceiling is, and if the Buckeyes can’t do the same, it will and should win. Yes, Kirby Smart’s team fell short a couple of times, but we’ve seen them pull this trick in the past only to flip the switch and turn on the afterburners. They deserved the presumption of innocence and their performance in Texas was very convincing.