Tennis rankings that really matter at the end of the season? No. 32 and No. 104

Conversations about rankings in tennis tend to focus on the nitty-gritty numbers.

That was the case last week when Aryna Sabalenka overtook Iga Swiatek to take first place in the WTA rankings for the second time in her career.

Neither player should expect much change in their daily routine or quality of life. Setting aside the bonuses that some players may receive from sponsors for finishing the season in the top 10 or top 20, the most significant ranking races at this time of year involve fighting and fighting for the number 32 spot or number 32 or so him. 104.

Why? Finish the year between 25th and 45th and you’ll have a great chance of being seeded at the Australian Open, the first Grand Slam of the year, which starts in mid-January.

Few sports reward the elite more than tennis. Highly ranked players do not have to play anyone in their ranked circle until the later rounds of a major tournament, and are more likely to receive a bye, which means automatic money and ranking points. Success creates opportunities for greater success.

Naomi Osaka knows all about it, playing at the 2023 Australian Open as an unseeded wild card in her second tournament since giving birth to her daughter. Osaka, a two-time Melbourne champion, lost in the first round to tough No. 16 seed Caroline Garcia. The seeded player won’t face anyone ranked higher than him until the third round.

At the start of this season’s series of tournaments in Asia, Osaka openly stated that her goal was to get to Melbourne. (And avoid Caroline Garcia.)

Down the ladder, scoring 104 or below earns or is in the hunt for a place in the Australian Open main draw and receives a guarantee of around $80,000 (£61,700). It may not be a big deal compared to the $3 million (£2.3 million) winner’s checks, but it could be life-changing for players struggling to cover travel expenses and pay a coach.

In October, November and January, a few hot weeks can make a big difference. Late-season deep runs at Grand Slams and 1000-level tournaments sap the top 20 players’ energy before the top eight players gather for the tour finals in Turin, Italy, for the men and Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, for the women.

Then it’s time to prepare for the Australian Open: the buffet of 250- and 500-level tournaments in Australia and New Zealand usually doesn’t include the biggest names. Both parts of the season present opportunities for a big jump – or drop – in the rankings, with groups of players at the bottom separated by just a few points.

More than 6,500 points separate Sabalenka, the world number one, from Danielle Collins, who is ranked 10th in the WTA rankings. Just 714 points separate Osaka, ranked 59th, from Marie Bouzkova, ranked 32nd in the world. On the ATP Tour, world number one Jannik Sinner is 8,350 points ahead of Alex De Minaur in 10th position, but Alexander Bublik is in 32nd position. he is only 572 points ahead of Roman Safiullin, who is in 60th place.

Here are just a few players who will be keeping a close eye on the numbers next to their names over the next few weeks – or into January as injury, another late-season scourge of tennis, stunts progress and/or occasionally looks nervously over their shoulder.

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Naomi Osaka

The four-time Grand Slam champion turned 27 on Wednesday. She rose to 59th place after being ranked 833rd on January 8 this year. That’s progress, but she was desperate to reach the top 32 to avoid the misfortune of a draw at this year’s Grand Slam.

After losing to Garcia in Australia, Osaka faced Swiatek at the French Open, losing a classic in the second round. At the US Open, she had to beat 10th seed Jelena Ostapenko to advance to the second round, where she lost to Karolina Muchova, another tennis player who has fallen in the rankings from the upper echelons and is rising again. Muchova eventually reached the semi-finals.

Osaka suffered a back injury during a close match with Coco Gauff in Beijing a couple of weeks ago, ending her attempts to move up for now; She announced Monday that she will be gone until 2025. It’s a pity. Osaka played well and the safety of the top 32 players was within reach. She will need the title and good results from other players to get to Melbourne.

Ons Jabeur

Just before the US Open, Osaka eliminated 2022 and 2023 Wimbledon finalist Once Jabeur from the National Bank Open in Toronto. It turned out to be Jabeur’s final match of the season as a persistent shoulder injury and chronic knee problem derailed her 2024. In the latest edition of the WTA rankings, published on October 28, she finally fell out of the top 32, meaning she will have work to do. she will have to compete in January warm-up tournaments if she is to be selected to return to action in Melbourne.

Leila Fernandez

Fernandez, a 2021 US Open finalist, is right in at No. 34—and don’t think she doesn’t know it. Few players pay as much attention to rankings as the Canadian, who has the grit and intelligence to beat almost anyone on any given day.

She has wins over Elena Rybakina, Madison Keys and Barbora Krejcikova this season – Krejcikova won Wimbledon just over two weeks after Fernandez beat her at Eastbourne en route to reaching the final of that grass-court tournament.

She may not play another tournament before the Billie Jean King Cup final, where players receive no points.

Katie Boulter

About 16 months ago Boulter’s rating was in the eighties. Winning a tournament in San Diego earlier this year catapulted her up the charts.

She is currently ranked 30th, salvaging a disappointing Asian turnaround by reaching the semi-finals at the Pan Pacific Open in Tokyo, earning 168 points and, more importantly, three places in the rankings.

Failure to win her third title of the year may yet have given her the confidence needed to secure her place in the safe zone over the next few weeks.

Robin Montgomery

Montgomery, a promising 20-year-old American from Washington, D.C., is ranked 106th in the Grand Slam standings.

Injuries to higher-ranked players will likely give her a spot at the Australian Open if it goes ahead next week, and Montgomery is the definition of a player who could use a main draw slot.

She doesn’t come from a wealthy background and has had to battle some injuries that have slowed her progress. She survived Wimbledon qualification earlier this year to win her first-round match against Australian Olivia Gadecka. A place in the main draw in Melbourne would be a good start to the new year.

Matteo Berrettini

Berrettini’s career has been cursed in many ways since reaching the 2021 Wimbledon final. Injuries. COVID-19. Bad draws – the big Italian took a little bit of everything.

The 28-year-old is in 41st place, less than 200 points behind Alexander Bublik in 32nd place. For Berrettini, it must be closer than shouting distance. In Europe, the only tournaments left are indoor tournaments on hard courts, the ideal place for a player with a stunning serve and a powerful forehand.

If Berrettini makes it to the seeded club again, he will be a player that no one really wants to face in the third round because his serve can knock the racquet out of many players’ hands. On the other hand, he spent last year as another nightmare draw – a former Grand Slam finalist floating in the mid-top 100 – and was beaten in the round of 16 at Wimbledon and the US Open by Sinner and Taylor Fritz respectively.

Brandon Nakashima

Any player going through a long slump need only look to Nakashima for inspiration.

Struggling with injuries and losing self-confidence, Nakashima… who finished in the last 16 at Wimbledon and the US Open – his ranking dropped to 151 by the end of last season. He has bounced between Challenger and major tour events the past two years and is back to 38th.

That means a solid year of work. He has 120 points out of the top 32. The American has a game that should yield some results on fast, indoor hard courts. He is, of course, kicking himself after losing to 39-year-old Stan Wawrinka in Stockholm this month.

Thomas Machak

Mach, a 24-year-old Czech, should be safe at number 27 and has all the tools to move up. Carlos Alcaraz learned that this month in China when Machac beat him in the quarterfinals in Shanghai, peaking almost throughout the match. (Final score 7-6, 7-5. Alcaraz not bad.)

Seeded Machac will be one of the players to watch in 2025. He has so many tools and so much talent, but he has yet to show it at the biggest tournaments.

His mind can wander and he says he tends to doubt himself, but if he has the opportunity to make it to tournaments, he could be very interesting.

Chris Eubanks

Wasn’t Chris Eubanks a Wimbledon quarterfinalist a year ago? Yes, he was.

Well, he’s now No. 119 in the world and is back on the Challenger Tour to try to get back into the main draw zone.

He needs wins, especially after losing a deciding set tiebreaker to Arthur Rinderknech in the first round of the US Open. He doesn’t need so many of them; Less than 100 points separate him from No. 104 Damir Dzumhur of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

(Featured photo of Ons Jabeur: Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images)