Northern Israelis are skeptical they will be able to return home safely, even if Israel and Hezbollah are set to sign a ceasefire.

As the Jerusalem cabinet is set to approve a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah on Tuesday, Galilee residents are wondering whether the Israel Defense Forces will be allowed to enforce its terms.

President Biden’s envoy Amos Hochstein agreed to a 60-day cessation of hostilities. Prime Minister Netanyahu gave his approval on Thursday after Mr Hochstein had earlier received the green light from Beirut parliament speaker Nabih Beri. The Shiite speaker is an ally of Hezbollah.

“There are some good things here,” Sarit Zehavi, founder of the northern Israel-based think tank Alma, tells the Sun about the ceasefire pact. However, Hezbollah will now “try to return to the border, the IDF will try to prevent it, and nothing will change for northern Israelis, including me,” she predicts.

One of the good parts of the agreement, she said, is America’s tacit promise to the IDF that it could act decisively if Hezbollah returned to the Lebanese-Israeli border or tried to rearm.

The 60-day ceasefire promises to usher in renewed efforts by the Lebanese military to disarm Hezbollah. Along with the UN Interim Force in Lebanon, the army is also expected to prevent Hezbollah’s presence south of the Litani River, a 20-mile stretch near the Israeli border.

In essence, the pact represents a return to the agreement dictated by UN Security Council Resolution 1701, reached after Hezbollah’s war with Israel in 2006. Earlier council resolution 1559 also ordered all Lebanese militias to disarm. Now America and France guarantee implementation.

Over the years, Hezbollah has become a stronger military force than the Lebanese National Army. His Radwan forces gained a foothold in the south, dug tunnels into Israel and planned to capture Galilee. Over the course of several months, the IDF destroyed Hezbollah’s leadership and arsenal. They also captured a five-mile strip inside Lebanon, destroying Hezbollah tunnels and observation towers and disbanding Radwan.

“Who will now stop Hezbollah from retaking the high hills that overlook the kitchen windows of Israelis living near the border?” Ms. Zehavi asks. Additionally, the Lebanese government and army “cannot prevent Hezbollah from rearming” because the cabinet minister in charge of border and airport security is a Hezbollah member.

According to some reports, the new agreement provides for the lifting of American sanctions against Syrian President Assad. In exchange, Damascus is expected to close its border and prevent Iranian weapons from being smuggled into Lebanon.

Mr Biden and French President Macron are expected to announce the completion of the agreement on Tuesday. After Mr. Netanyahu initially opposed Beirut’s insistence on French intervention, he relented. Paris has reportedly vowed to tone down its increasingly anti-Israel rhetoric, including calls to arrest the Israeli leader, as demanded by The Hague.

Mr. Netanyahu was also enticed by Washington’s promise to end the slowdown in arms sales to Israel. Mr. Biden has imposed restrictions on some weapons authorized by Congress.

Mr. Hochstein has been shuttling between Beirut and Jerusalem for several months. After receiving the green light from the Lebanese government last week, he arrived in Jerusalem on Thursday and told Mr. Netanyahu that if he did not sign the agreement, all mediation efforts would cease.

Mr Netanyahu will lobby his cabinet partners to vote for the deal. But the bigger challenge he will face will be convincing the people of northern Israel that the pact will guarantee their safe return home. Since October 8, 2023, more than 60,000 residents of the Galilee have been forced to leave their homes and are staying in hotels further south. Creating conditions for their return was the government’s stated goal.

“Anyone who says that the goals of the war were achieved is mistaken,” David Azoulay, mayor of Israel’s northernmost city of Metula, told Channel 12 News. “I advise the residents of Metula not to return. Let them stay in Tel Aviv or wherever.”

Hezbollah began attacks in northern Israel shortly after the October 7 atrocities, declaring solidarity with Hamas in the Gaza Strip. The Islamic Republic of Iran has called on its allied militias in Lebanon, Yemen and other countries to support Hamas.

Until the IDF killed Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah on September 27, the late leader insisted there would be no ceasefire in Lebanon until victory in the Gaza Strip. The terrorist group has suffered major setbacks in recent months as its military leadership and assets have been destroyed.

Under growing pressure from the suffering Lebanese population, Nasrallah’s successor Naim Kassem stopped linking Lebanon to the Gaza Strip. There are renewed hopes in Israel that, having lost Hezbollah’s support, Hamas will now release the hostages, ending the war in Gaza.

Meanwhile, the two-front war is draining the IDF’s reserve forces. Mr. Netanyahu and military commanders have apparently decided to pause efforts in Lebanon for now. However, even supporters of the ceasefire agreement are under no illusion that Iran’s most powerful regional ally will disappear forever.

Hezbollah has been significantly weakened. However, the threat to Israel from Lebanon “will not go away until we deal with Iran”, Ms Zehavi says.