Will Hollywood ever be able to replicate the success of The Lord of the Rings?

If humanity is lucky (which doesn’t seem to be the case these days), once every generation it will be gifted with a marvelous creative work like the work of J. R. R. Tolkien. Lord of the Rings novels. If we Really Fortunately, such a story could be followed half a century later by an outstanding film trilogy that cements squatters’ rights in cinematic history. However, between the beloved source material for generations and the history-changing success of the films, one overlooked reality is lost: then-New Line Cinema chairman Bob Shaye took the biggest risk in Hollywood history by greenlighting such an ambitious endeavor.

As we approach the 23rd anniversary Release of “The Fellowship of the Ring” (December 19), we are going to return to the gambling that was Lord of the Rings trilogy, how it rewrote the rules of Hollywood franchise development, and the examples and elements the industry should focus on today to create great new franchises tomorrow.

Lord of Risk

“Not all travelers are lost.” — Bilbo Baggins

Three Lord of the Rings the films were greenlit as a package and shot simultaneously in New Zealand from 1999 to 2000 with a total budget of $281 million (equivalent to almost $540 million today), excluding any marketing expenses. While Hollywood has developed and created similar content packages from time to time before, nothing on this scale has ever been attempted. The idea of ​​using your favorite intellectual property took root in the 1990s thanks to Harry Potter And Star wars prequels. But New Line’s initial bet on Tolkien’s legacy and director Peter Jackson’s vision, given rare creative freedom, for three unseen films may indeed have been considered crazy by some at the time.

“It was a huge gamble then, and even now,” Sean Robbins, chief analytics officer at Fandango and founder of Box Office Theory, told the Observer. “The sheer amount of money invested in a multi-year project that required large crews and actors working largely outside the traditional Hollywood system and locations was unprecedented. Everything depended on the first film being liked by fans and viewers. Otherwise, the sequels would have paid the price at the box office.”

Of course, we all know how it ended. The trilogy will earn billions worldwide, culminating in a historic 11 out of 11 Oscar win. Return of the King in 2004. This gave the green light to other franchises to adopt similar production schedules such as Matrix And Pirates of the Caribbean filming the second and third installments back-to-back after the initial success of the first, although neither was quite as ambitious.

Fellowship of the Ring marked the beginning of Hollywood’s episodic approach to franchises. More importantly, it put a new emphasis on IPs with built-in audiences that could turn into universes of specific fandoms.

Can another Lord of the Rings does the production process take place today?

“The work that has never begun takes the longest to complete.” — Samwise Gamgee

In fact, it was the true beginning of the era of Comic-Con entertainment—for better and for worse. Lord of the Rings trilogy (2001–2003) coincided with the advent of the Internet, which allowed film studios to effectively weaponize fandom. Existing IP addresses over the years established fans were suddenly seen as a viable financial bet with lucrative benefits.

Entertainment genres (sci-fi, fantasy, horror, superheroes), once considered a secondary focus of storytelling, became a staple of pop culture. But rather than realizing Jackson’s ability to create a story that was both epic in scale and deeply humanistic, studios simply chased fantasy worlds and concepts without thinking much about what made it appealing beyond the genre. That’s why there are so many pale imitations of the 2006 type. Eragon2007s Golden Compass and even 2016 Warcraft followed. Much money and countless jobs have been lost in the pursuit of Lord of the Rings trend. But only those who studied what made the trilogy successful was being able to translate that knowledge into its own game-changing franchise.

“Hollywood has realized the value of coherent storytelling and careful long-term planning within a franchise,” Derick Tsai, CEO of IP development studio Magnus Rex, told the Observer. “Lord of the Rings demonstrated how continuity in character development, world-building, and thematic depth can keep audiences invested in multiple films. These lessons served as the basis for future franchises such as Harry Potter and the Marvel Cinematic Universe, where detailed franchise planning has been the cornerstone of enormous success.”

Denis Villeneuve Dune: Part Two, $715 million box office juggernaut, sequel to ten-time Oscar nominee Dunewas announced only after the first film hit theaters. Universal has fallen back into ensemble nature traveling the world. Fast and Furious franchise due to the presence of actors. Avengers tease Iron Man’With The post-credits scene was added at the last minute. Closest modern example Lord of the Rings could be $350 million Universal in two parts Wicked series that was already one of the best-selling musicals in history.

Grand ambitions are not planned and realized in a vacuum. Schedule, location, plot, budget and a variety of other factors determine the direction and fate of a film series. Given the painful downturn the industry is currently experiencing, Hollywood is retreating to the perceived safety of the “sure thing.”

“In today’s risk-averse, data-driven industry, manufacturing like Lord of the Rings will be rare,” Tsai said. “Studios now favor iterative approaches, where the success of the first installment influences future expansions.”

That said, Tsai points to small-screen examples such as Amazon’s five-season plan for Rings of Power and HBO’s ten-season plan for Harry Potter a reboot reflecting a long-term commitment backed by “extensive data and proven audience demand.”

The reality is that it’s extremely difficult to break into screens these days, even on streaming. platforms where franchises don’t receive the same scrutiny (or have the same cultural footprint) as theatrical ones. Viewers want familiarity. With increased social media attention and online controversies, it has become harder than ever to please the public. As such, Hollywood is constantly looking for other financial opportunities to mitigate the risks associated with the big screen.

“Never say never, but it will require a very strong position from established industry names, likely with added benefits such as merchandising, IP expansion into television, video games, theme parks and many other perks associated with a franchise,” Robbins said. “In this day and age, and in risk-averse businesses, there usually needs to be multiple security systems in place.”

How should Hollywood build franchises in the future?

“May he be a light to you in dark places when all other lights go out.” – Galadriel

Lord of the Rings The novels are a once-in-a-lifetime story captured by a generational director who reached the pinnacle of filmmaking. This non-reproducible process.

“Filmmakers should prioritize telling a compelling, self-contained story rather than focusing on creating a multi-episode franchise,” Tsai explained. “The key is to ensure that the characters and world resonate deeply enough with audiences to create demand for future installments.” Tsai points to the “epic prologue” and “emotionally grounding” first act. Fellowship of the Ring as the best example of this in modern Hollywood.

What can be replicated is the desire to innovate in a proven genre at A reasonable cost. First John Wick was a ballet orchestra of violence made on a small, middling budget. Knives out combining incisive social commentary with a stellar cast, bringing a murder mystery to life. Taylor Sheridan’s growing list of neo-Westerns and crime dramas share a common thematic structure. Marvel is still the only studio with a successful, long-lasting interconnected universe. A blockbuster scale. James Cameron never stops innovating, and his success Avatar the films are proof that combining populist storytelling with boundary-pushing techniques can bring enormous success.

“Ultimately, there is no one right way to build a franchise,” Robbins said. “This is where business meets an art form, and the former of the two must be malleable when it comes to developing a plan, be willing to change that plan midway if necessary, and know when to leave it alone.”