Experts warn Ukrainian front could ‘collapse’ as Russia’s growth accelerates

President Biden’s decision to provide Ukraine with antipersonnel mines and allow the use of long-range missiles on Russian soil comes as the Russian military accelerates its advances on the front lines.

Data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) shows that Russia has gained almost six times more territory in 2024 than in 2023 and is moving towards key Ukrainian logistics hubs in the eastern Donbass region.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s surprise invasion of Russia’s Kursk region is faltering. Russian troops pushed back Kyiv’s offensive. Experts have questioned the success of the offensive, with one calling it a “strategic disaster” given the manpower shortage Ukraine faces.

These developments come at a time of heightened uncertainty as Donald Trump’s second administration approaches. The US president-elect has vowed to end the war when he takes office in January, with some fearing he could cut future military aid to Ukraine.

The front line moved quickly in the first few months of the war, with Russia rapidly gaining ground before being pushed back by a Ukrainian counter-offensive. But in 2023, neither side has made any major gains, and the conflict has largely reached a stalemate.

However, new ISW data suggests that the situation in 2024 will be more favorable for Russia. ISW bases its analysis on verified social media footage and reports of troop movements.

ISW data shows that Moscow’s forces have captured about 2,700 square meters this year. km of Ukrainian territory compared to only 465 sq. km for the whole of 2023, which is almost six times more.

Dr Marina Miron, a research fellow at King’s College London, suggested to the BBC that there was a possibility that Ukraine’s eastern front “could effectively collapse” if Russia continued its offensive at the same pace.

In the period from September 1 to November 3, more than 1000 square meters were occupied. km, suggesting that this process has accelerated in recent months. The brunt of these achievements falls on two regions – Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region and Kurakhovo – a stepping stone towards the key logistics hub of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region.

Kupyansk and areas east of the Oskil River. were liberated during the Kharkov offensive operation of 2022but Russia gradually regained the last territory. In a recent intelligence report, the UK Ministry of Defense said Russian troops were trying to break into the north-eastern outskirts of the city.

The footage, published on November 13 and verified by the BBC, is consistent with this analysis. The video shows a convoy of Russian armored vehicles being pushed back after it came within 4 kilometers of the key bridge at Kupyansk, the last major road crossing in the area.

While these messages do not necessarily mean control of territory, they indicate how stretched Ukraine’s defense line is.

Elsewhere, following the capture of the town of Ugledar in October—a high position above key supply lines that Moscow had fought for for two years— Russia threw resources into Kurakhovo.

Ukrainian forces defending the city have so far repelled attacks in the south and east. But the front line is closing in, and Russia is also threatening to encircle the defenders from the north and west.

Colonel Yevgeny Sasyko, former head of the strategic communications department of the Ukrainian General Staff, said Russia is placing “powerful jaws” on the city’s flanks that slowly “grind” the defenses until they collapse.

Images from the city verified by the BBC show widespread destruction, with homes heavily damaged.

ISW concludes that Moscow now owns a total of 110,649 sq. km of territory of Ukraine. For comparison, Ukrainian troops captured just over 1,171 square meters. km in the first month of the invasion of Kursk, although Russian troops have now recaptured almost half of this territory.

Despite the territorial gains, Russia’s advancement came at a huge cost.

An analysis by the BBC Russian Service confirmed that at least 78,329 troops have died since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022, with Moscow’s losses from September to November this year being more than one and a half times higher than Moscow’s. for the same period in 2023.

The losses are compounded by the “meat grinder” approach Russian commanders are said to favor, describing waves of recruits thrown into Ukrainian positions in an attempt to wear down troops.

Despite Russia’s advances, some experts note that the actual speed of the offensive is still low. David Handelman, a military analyst, suggested that Ukrainian troops in the east are slowly withdrawing to conserve strength and resources rather than suffer a wider collapse.

In August, Ukraine launched a shock invasion of Russia’s Kursk region. It is not clear why Russia took so long to respond to the operation, as a result of which Kyiv’s troops quickly took control of a number of border settlements.

Dr. Miron suggested that while the Kremlin would bear the domestic political costs of the invasion, the Russian General Staff sought to keep Ukrainian forces in Kursk as their forces had made gains elsewhere along the front line.

But now Moscow clearly intends to regain the territory lost on its territory. About 50,000 troops have been deployed to the region.

Verified videos from the Kursk region show that fierce fighting is taking place and that Russia is suffering significant losses in manpower and equipment. But the data clearly shows that Ukraine’s control over the region is shrinking.

Since early October, Russian counterattacks have retaken some 593 square kilometers of territory in the border region, according to ISW.

The invasion of Kursk was initially a great moral boon for Ukraine at a time of serious setbacks, and the boldness of the operation was a reminder of its ability to surprise and cripple its enemy.

But Dr Miron said that while the Kursk invasion was a moment of “tactical brilliance”, it was also a “strategic disaster” for Ukraine.

“The whole idea was to maybe gain some political leverage in potential negotiations, but militarily to draw Russian troops away from Donbass to liberate Kursk. But instead we see that Ukrainian units are stationed there.”

Some of Kyiv’s most experienced and effective units are known to fight in Kursk. Mechanized units equipped with the latest Western armored vehicles are also involved in the offensive.

Ukrainian leaders have hinted that they hope the invasion will force Moscow to redirect some of its forces from eastern Ukraine, slowing Russian advances there. Instead, experts say, most of the reinforcements were transferred to Kursk from parts of Ukraine where the fighting is not as intense.

“According to Ukrainian soldiers from different sectors of the front, the Russian troops reinforcing Kursk were mainly drawn from Kherson and Zaporozhye,” Yuriy Clavillier, a land analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told the BBC.

“The fighting there is not as intense as in the East. Some Russian units advancing on Kharkov were also redirected to Kursk, as Ukraine managed to stop the Russian advance there,” he added.

The importance of territory to both sides lies in the strength it gives to their position in any potential negotiations. Although no peace talks have been discussed, US President-elect Trump has said he could end the war within 24 hours, without specifying how.

Fears persist in Ukraine that Trump could cut military aid to force Kyiv to the negotiating table. President Volodymyr Zelensky told Fox News on Tuesday, “I think we will lose (the war)” if we cut spending. are pushing through.

“We have production, but not enough to win, and I think not enough to survive,” he said.

On Tuesday Ukraine fired US-supplied long-range missiles at Russia for the first time – the day after Washington gave her permission to do so. The decision is believed to have been made in part to help Ukraine retain part of the Kursk region to help use it as bargaining chips in future negotiations. .

Dr Miron told the BBC that Russia’s advance had given them a stronger negotiating position as Mr Trump’s new foreign policy team prepares to take office.

“What they control now gives them a definite advantage,” she said. “If it comes to negotiations, I am sure that, as the Russian side emphasizes, “we will do this based on the configuration of the battlefield.”

“From the Russians’ point of view, they have much better cards than the Ukrainians.”