Nova Scotia Tories appear safe in close race for second place between Liberals and NDP

The result, he said, was a lack of “interest, anger and motivation” on the part of voters. “I think this will ultimately benefit the Progressive Conservatives,” Marland said.

A Narrative Research poll released on Wednesday showed the Tories with a comfortable lead with 44 per cent support. The NDP were second with 28 per cent and the Liberals third with 24 per cent. The poll of 800 adult Nova Scotians, conducted between Nov. 4 and 17, is considered accurate to within 3.5 percentage points, 95 out of 100 times.

Tom Urbaniak of Cape Breton University said the campaign was “perhaps the quietest I’ve seen in Nova Scotia.”

“It just feels less intense on the ground,” Urbaniak said. “There are fewer signs and less literature coming to the door, and there seems to be less conversation in the café.”

He said the lack of a longer preparation period for the target date had also contributed to the overall lack of focus, with the 30-day campaign being the shortest allowed by law. “So that was a factor as well.”

Issues like the cost of living, lack of affordable housing and the province’s weak health care system figured prominently in the campaign, but no single issue dominated how the Progressive Conservatives managed to make health care a top issue in 2021.

Marland said polls show the Progressive Conservatives should “sweep” through many rural areas outside Halifax.

“In the Halifax area they are in much tougher competition with the NDP and that’s a real problem for the Liberals because it suggests the Liberals are not competitive anywhere,” he said. “So the real question here … is how much of the Liberal vote will be retained?”

Urbaniak said NDP Leader Claudia Chander emerged as a solid campaigner and delivered a strong debate performance that helped boost her profile in her first election as leader.

With early polling data pointing to a possible low voter turnout on Tuesday, Urbaniak believes the battle between the Liberals and NDP will depend on who can win the most voters in races where they are competitive. “This (result) will favor whoever has strong mobilization on the ground,” he said.

Liberal leader Zac Churchill agrees. “We have to get people to vote,” Churchill said, while noting that the Nova Scotia Office of Elections did not send out voter information cards because of the mail strike. “A lot of people don’t know where they’re voting, so there’s a lot more pressure on candidates, their volunteers and the central campaign team,” he said Friday.

Churchill said he was proud of his party’s campaign. “You only control what you can control. We have put a lot of effort into developing the right plan for this province… and we are running a campaign built on ideas,” he said.

Chander believes her party’s message was carried through through hard work on the ground.

“We’ve been all over the province in the last 24 hours and we’re going to continue to visit as many candidates in communities as possible until Election Day,” she said Friday.

She also believes that gaining the right to vote will be critical at a time of year when people aren’t necessarily focused on politics. “For us as New Democrats, it’s one door at a time, giving people information about where to go vote,” she said.

Houston, meanwhile, said he was confident his campaign had reached enough Nova Scotians to secure his party a second term in government.

“There is work to be done, but overall I think Nova Scotians recognize these efforts,” he said Friday. “I’m certainly optimistic, but we’ll spend the next few days continuing to work hard and traveling around the province.”

At dissolution, the Progressive Conservatives had 34 seats in the 55-seat legislature and the Liberals had 14 seats, while the NDP had six seats and had one independent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 24, 2024.

Kate Doucette, The Canadian Press