High food prices are changing some Thanksgiving plans, reports say

Many Thanksgiving hosts are adapting their plans and shopping habits to accommodate high grocery costs this year, according to two national industry reports released this week. But the importance of the holiday to consumers means that many are left with lavish feasts and festive gatherings on the table.

“If they’re hosting, it’s because it’s an important part of their family or cultural tradition,” said Justin Cook, Deloitte U.S. consumer products research leader based in Boston. “So there is a certain resilience to continue to celebrate, even in the face of high costs.”

An overwhelming majority—75 percent—of the 1,200 people Deloitte surveyed from Oct. 16 to Oct. 22 plan to host or attend a Thanksgiving gathering, according to the report. Another 16 percent are unsure whether they will do so. But of the nearly one in 10 who said they wouldn’t do so, 40 percent attributed their choice to higher food prices, while another 35 percent cited financial problems in general.

Food prices remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels. But turkey prices fell this year for the first time since 2018, according to a Globe analysis of food price data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which tracks average price changes in U.S. cities. Turkey and gravy prices rose about 7 percent last year. Turkey has already seen prices rise by 11.3% in 2020.

The analysis found that in 2022, as inflation raged across the country, most Thanksgiving staples rose in price by more than 15 percent. Price fluctuations in recent years have been much more volatile than in previous years.

Cook said many consumers were suffering from an “inflation hangover.” Food inflation has slowed significantly, but “that’s definitely not the case.”

“People are still comparing what they pay now to what they paid before the pandemic, and it’s 26 percent more,” he said.

A separate report from FMI, the food industry association, said consumer concerns over high prices will encourage them to shop name brands and look for great deals during the holiday season.

“We’re seeing many shoppers ready to strategically manage their holiday spending,” said Steve Markenson, vice president of research and analytics at FMI, “focusing their spending on special meals and holiday essentials while being mindful of their budget constraints . “

Hosts plan to invite an average of about 10 guests, according to a Deloitte survey, with some trimming their guest lists to cut costs. Of those earning less than $50,000 a year, 41 percent plan to invite fewer guests than before, compared with 24 percent of those earning more than $100,000 and 34 percent of those whose income is between $50,000 and $100,000.

About 92 percent of those planning to attend a Thanksgiving gathering will bring a dish, spending an average of about $47, according to Deloitte.

This was a welcome contribution for hosts, who reported an average holiday event budget of $260, according to the survey. Nearly half plan to ask their guests to bring something to help offset hosting costs. About half of survey respondents who earn less than $100,000 a year expressed concern about event costs, compared with 36 percent of those earning at least six figures.

Thanksgiving food was significantly more expensive last year than in 2019, according to Deloitte. A 16-pound turkey cost 31 percent more, pumpkin pie mix cost increased 34 percent, and pie shells cost 39 percent more. Toppings went up 41 percent, and buns cost 54 percent more.

Buyers may see some relief this year, although data on this year’s prices is still coming in, Cook said.

“With people being a little more hesitant this year because of food prices, I think this is an important reminder of the spirit of the holiday itself,” Cook said. “I would say if you can either donate food to a food pantry or maybe invite that guest you’ve been hesitant about, if you can afford it, do it.”

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Stella Tannenbaum can be reached at [email protected]. Nina Hagen can be reached at [email protected].