How the Melbourne Cup will be held

HOST: JUST GOOD looks like the most likely leader of the race. Co-trainers Guy Waterhouse and Adrian Bott prefer their horses to be ridden aggressively and he has led in each of his last four starts.

INFLUENCE ON SPEED: OKITA SUSHI raced at speed in his last two starts and went up distance with light weights, I expect him to move forward. POSITIVITY they have the speed to take a prominent place in the race if they want to pull away from the wide barrier. Two horses that their jockeys will have to make a decision on in advance, AN UNUSUAL MAN And CIRCLE OF FIRE. CIRCLE OF FIRE was racing almost at high speed when winning the final Sydney Cup prep (3200m). FANCY MAN also has the early pace to position itself prominently in the racing.

MAY GET CLOSER: ATHABASCAN, STRAIN RATE, TRUST YOU And ZARDOZI they all drew internal barriers that would allow them to naturally position themselves closer to the leader. It will be interesting if SEA KINGwho pulled the first barrier has the gate speed to use the barrier, or he will be buried in midfield a few pairs back.

PROBABLE PACE: Thanks to PuntingForm’s sectional data, we can see that four of the last five Melbourne Cups have been completed 16-18 lengths faster than average in the first 2600m of the race. The obvious exception was 2019 when they went 16-18L slower in the Cup won by Vow And Declare. Given the lack of speed on paper this year, I expect the race to be run at a slow to below average pace.