Tracking potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen heading into the Gulf next week

Following a Hurricane Hunter watch Sunday afternoon, an area in the Caribbean that we are monitoring for tropical development has been flagged as a potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen as further development is expected over the next few days.

The system is expected to become Tropical Storm Rafael early this week. The National Hurricane Center has issued an official cone forecast.

The environment in which this system is launched features warmer waters and low shear, making it more favorable for further development as it moves into the Caribbean. It is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane on its way to the Persian Gulf. But then everything changes.

As this system moves into the Persian Gulf, it will weaken. Gulf waters are much cooler than Caribbean waters, the Gulf environment will have a much higher shear and the air will be drier. Combined with these things, it really has no chance of becoming a strong system.

With so many factors coming into play midweek as it reaches the Gulf, the NHC noted that this cone forecast is very preliminary and will change as the forecast evolves.

In the current spaghetti model, we see the uncertainty of the spread trajectory upon arrival in the Gulf increasing, as this is still a fairly long-term forecast at this point. By the middle and end of the week there will be many other environmental factors to consider.

There is now high confidence that this storm will weaken significantly once it reaches the Gulf, regardless of where it may end up due to the hostile environment it will encounter.

The bottom line is that it’s too early to talk about specific details, and a lot of uncertainty remains. We will know more and provide updates as the forecast develops. This is not an immediate threat at this time. Expect isolated showers and rough surf next week.