Why voters in a few swing states will decide the US presidential election

The winner of Tuesday’s (November 5) US presidential election will govern a country of more than 330 million people, but the battle will almost certainly be decided by just tens of thousands of voters – a tiny fraction of the population – in a few states. .

That’s because polls show only seven of the 50 states are truly competitive this year, with the rest solidly Democratic or Republican. Among those seven battlegrounds, Pennsylvania, the most populous, stands out as the state most likely to determine whether Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump becomes the next president.

The candidates’ strategies reflect this reality: the vast majority of their advertising spending and campaign activities are focused on those seven states that swing between political parties.

Here’s a closer look at why the US presidential race will be decided by a small group of Americans:

WHY ARE ELECTIONS NOT DECIDED BY A NATIONAL PEOPLE’S VOTE?

Unlike elections for other federal candidates and state offices, the presidential race is not based solely on the popular vote. Instead, under a system known as the Electoral College, the winning candidate in each state, as well as in Washington, D.C., receives that state’s electoral votes, which are largely based on population.

A candidate needs to win a majority of the nation’s 538 electoral votes, or 270, which is possible even if he loses the national popular vote, as Trump did when he won the White House in 2016.

In the event of a 269-269 tie, the winner is chosen by the U.S. House of Representatives, with each state’s delegation receiving one vote, a scenario that analysts say would likely favor former President Trump.

If all states except battleground states vote as expected, that would give Vice President Harris 226 electoral votes and Trump 219, with the remaining 93 available for voting.