Pittsburgh vs. SMU Prediction: Who Will Win and Why?

The ACC showdown features two teams undefeated in conference play on the same field, with No. 18 Pittsburgh heading to the road against No. 20 SMU in Week 10 of college football. Here’s what you should keep an eye on with our updated prediction for the game.

A week ago, Pittsburgh crushed Syracuse with gutsy defense that returned 3 of the team’s 5 interceptions for touchdowns, improving to 7-0 on the year as one of college football’s eight remaining undefeated teams.

SMU pulled off a 1-point win over Duke last time out despite suffering 6 turnovers and needing a failed 2-point attempt to escape with a win, improving to 7-1 overall with a 4-0 record in ACC play.

What can we expect when the Panthers and Mustangs go head to head in this ACC showdown?

Here’s what you should watch when Pittsburgh and SMU meet in Week 10 college football action, with our updated forecast.

1. Pressure. Pitt recorded 12 sacks in its first 5 games, but added 10 more sacks to that total over the last 2 games, trailing an increasingly confident group of linebackers, ranking 20th nationally and averaging 3.14 sacks per game. game.

SMU is strong on defense and doesn’t allow a ton of negative plays, allowing just 1.13 sacks per game and only 9 overall on the year, combined with 4.25 tackles for loss allowed per game.

2. On the line. SMU’s blockers have paved the way for a productive rushing attack that ranks 23rd nationally with 201 yards per game, an average of 4.73 yards per carry and a total of 19 touchdowns.

But the Panthers were up to the task, ranking 9th in the FBS in rushing defense, allowing an average of 94 yards, just 2.52 yards per carry and just 6 touchdowns on the ground, 6th nationally.

3. Surveillance for injuries. And for both defenders too. SMU’s Kevin Jennings was cleared to play after suffering an undisclosed issue last week. The good news for the Mustangs is that he is 5-0 as a starter with 10 touchdowns and 5 picks, and is also a capable runner with 321 yards and 3 more touchdowns while leading the ACC’s third-best offense.

Pitt quarterback Eli Holstein also has been cleared to play, head coach Pat Narduzzi confirmed after the player was injured while running last week. He has 17 touchdowns and 5 interceptions and plays his best football in the fourth quarter, completing 75% of his throws with 4 scores and no turnovers.

Pittsburgh’s average this year 12.7 points better than its opponents on the same field, while SMU did well 12.9 points better than competitors in 2024.

In the last three games, both teams have played equally against their opponents.

Pittsburgh was 13.3 points better average than its opponents during that time, while SMU was 12.7 points better than the competition during this period.

Playing on the road, Pitt saw its winning margin slip, winning games by 5.5 points on average against opponents away from home.

SMU was 15.7 points better than their opponents on average when playing at home this season.

Pittsburgh is ranked 19th nationally with 35.5 points per game on average, going against an SMU defense that ranks 51st in the FBS, allowing 23.4 points per game.

Overall, the Panthers’ offensive output averages 408 yards per game ranks 44th in the country this season, and the Mustangs’ defense ranks 45th in turnovers. 351.3 yards per game.

Pittsburgh ranks 15th among 134 FBS teams in scoring average. 0.534 points per game this season compared to SMU, which ranks 38th in defense, allowing 0.325 points per game on average.

In third place, Pitt ranks just 94th nationally in chain moving. 36.11 percent conversion opportunities, and SMU ranks 38th in the FBS, allowing opponents to move chains further. 34.31 percent chances of a third defeat.

Pitt ranks 33rd nationally in red zone scoring and comes away with points 90.48 percent chances in the opponents’ top 20, while SMU allows points on 82.61 percent opportunities.

SMU ranks 17th in the country in average 36.3 points per game this season they will face a Pittsburgh defense that ranks 44th in turnovers. 22.8 points per game on average.

When weighing the total number of violations, SMU publishes 421.9 yards per game this season, ranked 37th in the country, against a Pitt defense that allows 356.2 yards per game50th in FBS rankings.

SMU average 0.522 points per game average on offense, ranking 19th in the country in that category, compared to Pitt’s defense, which ranks 16th in defense allowing 0.281 points per game this season.

SMU posts 6.1 yards per play The offense ranks 35th in the FBS in total offense, but the Panthers rank 9th in the country in turnovers. 4.4 yards per play.

In the third, the Mustangs move the chains. 43.33 percent of that time, ranking 36th in the FBS while the Panthers are allowing conversions on 30.93 percent chances.

SMU converted 26 of its 32 red zone opportunities into points. 81.25 percent success rate, and 21 of those 26 points (65.53 percent) are touchdowns.

Most other analytics models favor the Mustangs over the undefeated Panthers.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer forecasting model that uses data from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

SMU is expected to win the power play. 70.2 percent from the latest computer simulations of the match.

That leaves Pittsburgh as the projected winner in the remaining 29.8 percent Sims.

According to forecasts, SMU will be 7.7 points better than Pittsburgh has done on the same field in recent simulations of both teams, according to the model’s latest prediction.

SMU is Favorite with a rating of 7.5 points against Pittsburgh, according to updated data posted by FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total on 58.5 points per game (Over -114, Under -106).

And that set the moneyline odds for SMU at -275 and for Pittsburgh in +220 win outright.

Pittsburgh has the defense to contain the Mustangs’ skill threat, but they have played in a few close games and haven’t faced a team this talented this season.

SMU can pack a punch on the ball, and the added bonus of Jennings’ mobility could be just the combination that ultimately outlasts Pitt’s aggressive front seven.

Holstein has missed passes at times this season, and if he doesn’t play his best game, it could give the Mustangs an opportunity to pull away, but SMU’s turnover issues in recent games could make it closer than the home team would. prefer.

College football staff selects…

Read more… Score prediction for Pittsburgh vs. SMU using an expert model

When: Saturday, November 2.
Time: 8:00 PM ET | 7:00 pm Central Time
TV: ACC Network

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Game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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