Move swing states: Control of Congress comes through New York—and at a cost

What would it cost to try to win a few congressional elections in New York that could help change the balance of power in Washington?

Answer: $146 million… so far.

Democrats and Republicans are focusing on six House districts in the Empire State that could potentially be drawn on Election Day. Most of them are located in the New York City suburbs, the Hudson Valley and Long Island.

The political donor class responded by putting their money where their mouth was, pouring tens of millions of dollars into each race. This money was used to jam the airwaves in an attempt to influence some of the most significant House elections in the country.

Here’s a look at New York’s key congressional races by the numbers.

We are number 2! The second most expensive race in the country…

… New York’s expansive 19th District, stretching from the mid-Hudson Valley to Ithaca.

The bitter rematch between Republican Marc Molinaro and Democratic attorney Josh Riley has spent about $41 million this cycle, according to Federal Election Commission records.

That’s the second-highest total in the country, just behind the California House race, according to OpenSecrets, which tracks election spending.

A total of 32 outside groups have poured nearly $27 million into the race, funding a barrage of ads (most of them negative) about immigration, abortion and more.

Elsewhere in the state, the Hudson Valley battle between GOP incumbent Rep. Mike Lawler and former Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones is also one of the most expensive races in the country, costing an estimated $36 million.

So who is funding these six races in New York?

The bulk of the spending—about $90 million—comes from outside groups, which are allowed to raise unlimited amounts of money.

Top donors include the Congressional Leadership Fund, a national PAC dedicated to electing Republicans, which has spent $25.8 million on six New York elections alone. His biggest donors are Timothy Mellon, a banking heir and major Republican Party benefactor, and Kenneth Griffin, CEO of the hedge fund Citadel.

The House Majority PAC, a pro-Democratic organization, spent about $15 million. The project’s largest backer is former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg.

Battleground New York, a pro-Democrat PAC largely funded by labor unions, spent more than $4 million on six races; he also spent about $1.6 million on Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi, who returned to the ballot after winning a key special election to replace ousted Republican Rep. George Santos earlier this year. Suozzi will face Republican Michael LiPetri.

A total of 70 different outside groups spent at least some money trying to influence key races in New York.

They include groups like Bloomberg’s gun safety organization Everytown, which has spent about $1.6 million supporting Democratic candidates or criticizing their Republican opponents, according to Federal Election Commission data.

On the Republican side, the National Association of Realtors PAC spent about $2.8 million supporting Lawler and Molinaro.

Two-thirds of the money went to negative advertising or efforts directed against the candidate. The remaining third went toward positive advertising or efforts to support a candidate, the documents show.

$500,000 Each: Wall Street Collective Bet Big on New York Democrats

An organized group of 99 wealthy donors, most of them from the tri-state area, has provided significant support to three New York Democrats in their races.

It’s called the House Victory Fund, and its donors have collectively given more than $500,000 each to Jones, Riley and Laura Gillen, the Long Island Democrat challenging Rep. Anthony D’Esposito.

This is a significant part of the changes. In all three New York cases, the foundation is listed as the candidates’ largest donor when in fact it is a fundraiser.

The foundation has raised more than $8 million from individuals this year, with more than $6 million coming from people listing a New York address. They include many people from Wall Street, including former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, as well as a wide range of financiers, executives and employees of various investment funds, as Politico reported earlier this year.

Other donors who have given to the national fundraiser include Laurie Tisch, whose family owns the New York Giants; Kamal Patel, co-founder of nutrition website Examine.com; philanthropists David and Susan Rockefeller; and Elizabeth Economics of the Hoover Institution.

$21.8 million: The most popular candidate in the country is in… Brooklyn?

New York is not expected to hold competitive congressional elections this year. So why did the Brooklyn representative raise so much more than any other House candidate in the country?

Don’t think too hard. It’s House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who has more on the line this election cycle than anyone other than Trump or Harris. If Democrats win the national majority, Jeffries could make history as the first black speaker of the House of Representatives.

For this he collected huge sums of money. This includes a staggering $21.8 million in his individual campaign account, which he used to support the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and individual candidates across the country. That’s more than $4 million more than current House Speaker Mike Johnson, the No. 2 fundraiser, Republican.

Federal Election Commission records show Jeffries’ campaign has thousands of individual contributors from across the country. He has also received donations from hundreds of committees controlled by labor unions and special interest groups, which include names such as CVS Health, SEIU, Deloitte, BlackRock and the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, better known as AIPAC.

In addition to Jeffries, two other members of the New York State House delegation ranked among the top 10 fundraisers this cycle: Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik of the North Country ($14 million) and Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio- Cortez from the Bronx ($13.3 million). ), which both have a significant national profile.

Bill for two Long Island races: $37.5 million so far.

There are two key House races taking place on Long Island: the battle for the 1st District in Suffolk County between GOP Rep. Nick LaLota and Democrat John Avlon, and D’Esposito’s rematch against Gillen, the former Hempstead supervisor, in the 4th. m district.

So far, the Guillen-D’Esposito race has proven to be more expensive, costing about $27 million.

As the incumbent, D’Esposito’s campaign spending has recently come under intense media scrutiny. A CNN article raised questions about why his campaign spent more than $102,000 on food and drink, including more than $23,000 at steakhouses, bars and liquor stores.

“Last time I checked, no one wants to go to a political fundraiser at a fast food restaurant. So you have to spend money to raise it,” D’Esposito told Gothamist. He said he needs to find new donors to succeed in a very competitive district, “and this is what it’s going to take.”

In addition to races in the Hudson Valley and Long Island, another New York competitive race takes place in downtown New York. That’s where first-term Republican Rep. Brandon Williams is trying to hold on in his race against Democratic Sen. John Mannion.

Brigid Bergin contributed reporting.