Monday racing tips: best bets on Ayr, Thirsk and Leicester from Tom Lunn

talkSPORT brings you free horse racing tips and free bets on Monday’s matches at Ayr, Thirsk and Leicester.

Tom Lunn has studied cards, form, behavior and more to help you make your horse racing bet choices.

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Monday Racing Tips

• ER
  3.28: Karkaci Castle for a place in the top 3 – 11/10 (2 points)
• THIRSK
  1.25: Native instinct 7/4 (1.5 points)
  1.55: Novelista 9/4 (1 point)
• Leicester
  2.40: Another 7/4 (1.5 points)

Karkaci Castle

Home Free He should do better this time as he races for the second time since his wind surgery.

Last time the 2m chase only went over eight fences as two were missed, so with 13 this time he should be able to make it a proper chase display rather than the flatter one last time he won with advantage, but always did enough.

He finished second on his racing debut in May and can now make it 2-3 over fences under Harry Skelton with a yard and jockey in good form.

Labor Dorfevre was very consistent in overcoming obstacles, especially last season, never leaving the top three.

But he doesn’t often hold his head forward and seems to prefer softer surfaces.

He finds it difficult to pay that price as his form has kept him around the same weight for the last six races and has never gone above that, giving him 13 chase starts and only one win.

I like Karkaci Castle at 10/1, albeit with a shot chance, although the favorite is very resilient so is not exposed over fences.

But the gelding, making his first start since July, could be there as he proved his ability over hurdles by winning at Hexham in June and also closing in on an impressive chaser. Gardener about his debut over the fence back in February.

He was also not disgraced when he took second top weight last time out at Cartmel and finished third behind Cusco Du Matan and Gypsy Davey.

This winner has since won again and clearly made the most of the low score, while Gypsy Davey held steady on his current score.

A summer vacation may be all he needs, and the result is either a return trip or both.

Native instinct

This appears to be the best bet in the field as there are only seven runners in this Class 5 novice event at 6 feet.

Dan Tucker showed promise in his first two starts but found himself struggling on soft ground for the first time in listed company.

This made it difficult to back up, but it may have been too good for the field.

Native instinct was a fairly close fifth on debut on 6f and then finished a respectable third here on 7f.

Pedigree suggests he can handle the ground and the money has gone to Native Instinct rather than Dan Tucker, despite the latter’s very good second place finish with a 17th place finish here in September.

Novelista

it will be hard for Trickster It would take a lot to win two in a row with a £7 penalty for winning on opening and on soft surfaces up to 1m 1f.

Novelista he has done well in his first two Proving Ground starts behind a number of useful winners and should make a decent price here.

Another

Another attracted attention on his debut at Kempton last month when he finished second to The Fingal Raven despite a poor start.

He fulfilled that potential by finishing another decent second behind Make You Smile at Newbury on heavy ground, which bodes well given today’s conditions.

This winner won by a length over Jaruch in the Group 3 Horris Hill Stakes on Saturday, so he was clearly up against a very good unshowed horse.

Now he faces Belgrave however, more 6f instead of 7f which also has good form and also Ralph Beckett doing it very well.

Earlier this month the gray colt was beaten by over 6ft at York, also on the soft, however One More could still not be exposed, especially on this trip, and his form worked very well as Jaruch is a very difficult horse to you can win.

Tom Lunn’s Profit/Loss

• October 24: +21.57
• From May 24: +155.99 points
• From July 23: +368.55 points

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All odds are valid at the time of writing

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