Thanksgiving dinner is cheaper this year. That’s why

The cost of Thanksgiving dinner gives families a reason to be grateful this year.

According to the latest report from the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), an agricultural industry interest group, the low cost of some Thanksgiving foods could push the average cost of a meal to $5.81 per person. That’s down 5% from $6.12 per person last year.

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Turkey price drop

The drop is largely due to falling prices for turkey, the centerpiece of most traditional Thanksgiving tables. Turkey is typically the most expensive part of the meal, accounting for about 43% of the total cost.

The average price for a 16-pound turkey is now $25.67, which works out to $1.60 per pound, down 6% from last year. The average price per pound of whole frozen turkey also fell in the second week of November, according to the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service.

Low prices for turkey are due to a drop in demand for turkey due to bird flu.

“The U.S. turkey flock is the smallest it has been since 1985 due to bird flu, but overall demand has also fallen, lowering grocery store prices for families planning a holiday meal,” says AFBF economist Bernt Nelson.

Farmers raised 205 million turkeys this year, down 6% from last year—the lowest since 1985, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). The USDA estimates per capita turkey demand to be 13.9 pounds per person, down a pound from 2023 levels.

Cost of other items in the table

Other produce prices have fallen this year, including sweet potatoes, carrots and celery, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation’s annual survey.

Three pounds of sweet potatoes cost $2.93, down 26.2% from last year. The fall in prices reflects the volatility of this year’s harvest. Prices for other items such as frozen peas, pumpkin pie mix and whole milk also fell. Favorable weather caused the price of a gallon of whole milk to plummet by more than 14%, the group said. However, AFBF’s analysis notes that these prices vary significantly across the United States.

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On the other hand, tables serving more dinner rolls, fresh cranberries, whipped cream and diced toppings are looking more expensive this year.

Items such as diced stuffing and buns rose 8% due to higher labor costs for partners across the food supply chain. Cranberry prices are up nearly 12% year over year but remain more affordable than historical averages, according to AFBF.

The cost of a classic Thanksgiving dinner looks most affordable in the South, at $56.81 for ten, or $5.68 per person, and most expensive in the West, at $67.81, or $6.78 per person.

With additional items like ham, red potatoes and frozen green beans included, the updated cost of Thanksgiving dinner rose to $77.34, or $7.73 per person, nearly double the savings on the classic basket, reflecting lower prices by 8.7% compared to 2023. With the updated meals, the South still looked the most affordable at $81.07, followed by the Northeast at $81.37 and the Midwest at $81.37. $83.04 and the least affordable option in the West is $94.09.

But those costs remain about 19% higher than in 2019, before pandemic restrictions.

“We have seen modest improvements in the cost of Thanksgiving dinner for a second year, but American families, including farm families, continue to suffer from high inflation,” AFBF President Zippy Duvall said in a statement.

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