Manchester City news: Statistics of defensive problems

Manchester City hope to bounce back from match Tottenham After four losses in a row, we conducted an in-depth statistical study of the defensive problems that led to the defeats…

City are currently conceding 1.2 goals per game, their worst figure of a Premier League season under Pep Guardiola (previously the worst figure was one per game in the Spaniard’s first season at the helm).

However, in reality they are conceding about the same number of shots as they have been in the last two seasons (7.8 per game this campaign versus 7.7 in 2022/23 and 2023/24) – the number of shots conceded is not the issue. .

In fact, only two teams – Bayern Munich and Getafe – are conceding fewer shots per game in Europe’s top five leagues this season.

The reason they concede so many goals is because of the superior quality of the chances they turn down.

In fact, Guardiola’s side are missing out on the most quality chances in Europe’s top five leagues this season – in terms of expected goals (xG) per shot.

The shots they gave up are valued at 0.155 xG on average. That is, historically, teams convert such chances 15.5% of the time, and that’s exactly what they are doing – City’s opponents have a conversion rate of 15.1% so far.

They conceded one penalty, which in turn increased their xG per shot, but they still missed the best non-penalty chances in Europe – 0.148 xG per shot.

So this isn’t a story of the opposition being particularly ruthless in front of goal and City just being a bit unlucky. The reigning Premier League champions are handing out great chances to teams who are happy to take them.