Pain for Wayne at Bunnies, Penrith’s easy run and why Ricky’s whining is nothing

Draws are never equal. Lamps are never fair. Every year’s drawing has winners and losers, and 2025 is no exception. Last year Cronulla had one of the softest draws of the last decade and finished in the top four despite starting the season in the ninth line of the betting. The Southerners, on the other hand, were unable to overcome a brutal draw.

Teams are impacted by more than just schedule clarity. There are breaks – quick turns and normal/extended rest. There are travels. There are goodbyes and their time.

There is a draw time: when you have easy games, when you have hard games, the opportunity to start fast and/or finish strong. In the origin period there are winners and losers. There are draw features – races, home and away games, Magic Round and much more.

Strength of schedule

In terms of schedule clarity, there is no doubt that Canberra will be the big winner this year. They combined for 270 wins last season, 10 fewer than the Warriors’ second-best record. They are one of three teams (along with the Warriors and Titans) to have only four games against last year’s top four teams, while they have the second fewest games against top-8 opponents in the past year with 10 games against last year’s finalists.

The Warriors also provided a soft schedule. They have four games against top-4 teams and 11 against top-8 opponents. After the 16th round, they will have a chance to finish like a locomotive, without rivals from the top 4 of last year.

The Dolphins and Panthers are the other two teams that play teams with a combined win record of 283 or less. The Dolphins, who leave Queensland just once before round seven, play just five top-four teams and have just 11 matches against top-eight opponents. The Panthers have a very pleasant draw. They have a tough start with seven strong opponents heading into the 10th round, but for the last two-thirds of the season they play a very easy schedule, taking advantage, of course, of not having to play themselves.

At the other end of the spectrum is the South Sydney team, which has dealt with the toughest schedule yet.

The Rabbitohs’ total wins against opponents were 311, 10 more wins than the second-toughest schedule. Souths are the only team forced to play all four of last year’s top four teams twice. In their first nine games, they played eight matches against opponents from last year’s top 8.

The Eels didn’t provide any help either, especially after finishing second to last. They will play 13 games against top-eight opponents, something only the Sharks have asked to do. These included six games against top-4 opponents.

Winners: Canberra, New Zealand, Dolphins, Penrith
Losers: South Sydney, Parramatta

Start

Newcastle and Canterbury are the only two teams whose opponents have fewer than 80 combined wins from their first eight games, while the Tigers are just above that number.

The Knights will play the Tigers twice in the first six rounds, while they have just two top-8 meetings in the first 11 rounds. The Bulldogs have only two Top 8 matches in the first 10 rounds. The Tigers have met the Knights twice in the first seven rounds, but that’s their only opponent from last year’s Top 8.

South Sydney and Penrith have the right to start slowly. South Sydney have had an absurdly difficult start to the year, with their opponents combining for 119 wins last year. Through the first nine weeks, the South has seven teams in the top eight. The Panthers have 113.5 wins since last year in the first eight games. They will play seven teams from the top eight in the first nine weeks.

Winners: Newcastle, Canterbury, Wests Tigers
Losers: South Sydney, Penrith

Running home

The three teams that are in position to finish the season strong are the Titans, Warriors and Cowboys, who are playing against a combined win record of 87 or less. Gold Coast have beaten the Tigers and Warriors twice each in the last eight rounds. The Warriors don’t play a top-4 team after the 16th round.

The Knights and Bulldogs will have their two toughest runs home after their two easiest starts – if these two teams don’t prepare early, their season will be over. The Bulldogs have a total of 117 wins in the final right rounds, with all of the final four rounds coming against the top four teams from last season. The Knights have a total of 115.5 wins.

Winners: Gold Coast, New Zealand, North Queensland
Losers: Newcastle, Canterbury

Travel

It’s no surprise that the four teams that open the season in Las Vegas are among the five teams that will travel the furthest this season. New Zealand, Canberra, Penrith and Cronulla, as well as North Queensland, will be among the top five most visited teams in 2025.

It’s not a big shock for the Warriors, who always log a lot of miles, but sees a huge change for Penrith and Cronulla. Canberra are perhaps the toughest team heading to Vegas as they are one of only three teams to travel over 40,000km in 2025.

At the other end of the spectrum, the Bulldogs are the clear winners with just 8,300-odd miles on the clock. They do not leave Sydney until round 8 and leave Sydney only five times, with three of them arriving in three weeks (rounds 9-11). The Roosters have the second-fewest kilometers traveled at around 10,500, which is a huge advantage for a top-four team considering two other teams play in Vegas and another is Melbourne in 12th place.

Gold Coast had the best lead of any club outside Sydney, traveling 18,500km, just slightly less than the Broncos. The Titans have exited Queensland just eight times and just once in the last six rounds.

Winners: Canterbury, Sydney Roosters, Gold Coast
Losers: Canberra, Penrith, Cronulla

Magic round

Brisbane and the Dolphins win the Magic Round again, earning an extra home game as the away team at Suncorp Stadium. The Broncos have been Magic Round winners since the concept’s inception, and now the Dolphins are on that train.

The Cowboys also benefit because they don’t have to travel to New Zealand to play the Warriors, while the Dragons will be betting much less against the Tigers on a neutral ground than if the game were played in Leichhardt or Campbelltown.

The Roosters and Panthers play home matches against Brisbane teams and have clearly accepted a financial disadvantage. The Warriors blew a big lead over the Cowboys while the Tigers did the same.

Farewell Manly is a devastating blow for Sea Eagles fans who will miss out on the Magic Round celebrations.

Winners: Brisbane, Dolphins, North Queensland, St George Illawarra
Losers: Roosters, Penrith, New Zealand, Wests Tigers

Bye

There is no real science to when you want it and when you don’t. However, there are some outstanding achievements. Teams full of Origin players want to say goodbye the weekend before Origin. The Broncos, Storm and Panthers – all expected to have at least three players in their Origin squads – will each have two byes over the three weekends. Roosters are the complete opposite. They might have three to five players on Origin duty and miss them all three times.

Other losers include the Titans, who were given a terrible and meaningless bye in the first round, and the Dolphins, who received three byes in an eight-week stretch, the tightest bye schedule of any team.

Winners: Brisbane, Melbourne, Penrith
Losers: Gold Coast, Dolphins, Roosters

Origin week matches

Canterbury were the clear winners of the Origin week draws, where rep players will be forced to sit out rounds 12, 15 and 18.

In fact the Bulldogs only have Stephen Crichton and Matt Burton as likely Origin prospects and they get the Dolphins at home without Tabuai-Fidow and perhaps a few forwards, Souths without Mitchell, Murray (if he fits) ), Arrow and maybe a few others and the Broncos at home without Walsh, Cobbo, Haas, Carrigan and a few others potential players.

The Knights also win big, with Newcastle likely to miss Ponga and Best but get Penrith away without a host of Origin stars and then the Roosters at home without their contingent.

The Eels and Tigers each get two byes, but Parramatta also host Manly, who will likely be missing brothers Trbojevic and Daly Cherry-Evans, while the Tigers get the Roosters without their star line-up.

The Roosters will play three games in these three rounds and will be at a huge disadvantage in each. Manly are the same, which leaves them in a vulnerable position without brothers Trbojevic and Cherry-Evans for three games in which they would normally have a big advantage.

Winners: Canterbury, Newcastle, Parramatta, Tigers
Losers: Roosters, Manly

Five-day repair

The NRL is afraid of five-day changes. They provide little recovery time and shorten preparation. Depending on the time of year, one training run may be held.

Avoiding a five-day break is an advantage, and six teams have that advantage in 2025: the Bulldogs, Warriors, Eels, Dragons, Roosters and Tigers.

The three teams went through three five-day breaks, with the Broncos, Dolphins and Sharks losing in quick support.

While teams don’t like quick results, over the past five seasons, teams with a five-day record are 103-97.

Winners: Canterbury, New Zealand, Parramatta, St George Illawarra, Roosters, Tigers
Losers: Brisbane, Cronulla, Dolphins

Payback in more than seven days

The ideal situation for teams is to have a week or more between games. Gives normal training. Most competitions play between 15 and 17 games with at least seven days’ rest, including three bye games.

Canberra is the only team to top that range, having played 18 games in at least a week. Three teams lack this: Brisbane, Manly and Canterbury. Both the Broncos and Sea Eagles have 13 seven-day reserves, while the Bulldogs have 14.

Winners: Canberra
Losers: Brisbane, Manly, Canterbury

Even though Ricky Stewart complained that the Raiders received the worst draw in his 22 years in first grade, they undoubtedly received the softest reward, helped by the best rest of any team. Other teams that should be happy are the Warriors, Dolphins, Knights and Bulldogs.

The NRL showed no love to South Sydney or Parramatta, while the Roosters and Sharks may feel somewhat let down by their match-up.