War in Ukraine: what will Russian Putin do after several days of escalation?

The question “What will Putin do next?” usually follows: “Will Putin use nuclear weapons in the war in Ukraine?”

The Russian president made several subtle hints.

Announcing the start of his “special military operation”—a full-scale invasion of Ukraine—he warned “those who might be tempted to intervene from outside.”

“No matter who tries to stand in our way or create a threat to our country and our people,” the Kremlin leader said, “they must know that Russia will respond immediately.

“And the consequences will be like nothing you have ever seen in your entire history.”

Western leaders generally rejected what they saw as nuclear weapons rattling. Since the war began, Western governments have crossed several Russian red lines, providing Ukraine with tanks, advanced missile systems, and then F-16 fighter jets.

The “consequences” the Kremlin threatened never materialized.

In September, Putin announced he was lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, a decree published this week. A clear warning to Europe and America not to allow longer-range missile attacks on Russian territory.

Now this red line has been crossed. In his address to the nation, Putin confirmed Western reports that Ukraine had launched US-supplied Atacms missiles and British Storm Shadow missiles at targets in Russia.

Earlier this week, when the pro-Kremlin tabloid Moskovsky Komsomolets asked the retired lieutenant general how Russia should respond to the Atakom attack on the Bryansk region, he replied:

“Starting the Third World War because of attacks on a weapons depot in the Bryansk region would probably be short-sighted.”

It would be comforting to think that the Kremlin shares this view.

But there was no evidence of this in Vladimir Putin’s address to the nation.

His message to Ukraine’s supporters in the West was: This is a red line I take seriously, and I dare you to cross it.

“Even Putin doesn’t know whether he can use nuclear weapons or not. It depends on his emotions,” Novaya Gazeta columnist Andrei Kolesnikov recently told me.

“We know he is a very emotional person. The decision to start this war was also an emotional step. Therefore, we must take his idea of ​​changing nuclear doctrine seriously. They say the fear of war is bound to return and will constrain both sides, but it is also a tool of escalation.

“In this interpretation, it must be recognized that Putin, under some circumstances, can use at least tactical nuclear weapons as part of a limited nuclear war. This won’t solve the problem. But this will be the beginning of a suicidal escalation for the whole world.”

Tactical nuclear weapons are small warheads designed for battlefield or limited strike use.