100 thousand Ont. students will not get a place at the university. This is serious

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The Ontario government has its finger in a lot of pies, and not all of them are to its taste. If you want to build a highway, tear up a bike lane, or spend several billion dollars on a battery factory, Premier Doug Ford is your man. If you want a financially sustainable university system that can meet future student demand, not much else.

In a new report, the Council of Ontario Universities (COU) makes a strong and compelling case for improved financial support, either through higher tuition fees, larger government grants, or both. The COU report estimates that by 2030, without increased funding from the province, 100,000 qualified prospective students will not be able to find a place at Ontario universities. This situation should anger parents and motivate politicians.

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Ontario universities are underfunded and have serious financial problems. This is not an entirely controversial conclusion. Ontario’s funding for each student ranks last in the country; this is about half the per student average in the rest of the country.

This is what happens when successive provincial governments fail to increase per-student funding for 15 years. To make matters worse, the Ford government cut tuition by 10 percent in 2019 and has kept it frozen ever since.

In addition to these fundamental shortcomings, Ontario universities face a number of new challenges. For years, universities hid provincial stinginess by admitting ever-increasing numbers of foreign students paying exorbitant tuition fees. The federal government has rightly reduced these numbers. COU says this would mean a $1 billion loss in revenue in the first two years alone.

Then there is the effect of the provincial government’s failed Bill 124, which attempted to cap public sector wages. The plan was ruled unconstitutional, and universities were forced to raise salaries to compensate for the income their employees were denied. According to the financial statements of just over half of the province’s universities to date, that compensation has cost $335 million this year, with continuing costs expected to total $266 million annually, COU said.

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Finally, there is post-pandemic inflation. Its consequences are undeniable, but due to capitation funding and tuition freezes, universities have had to cope largely on their own.

Earlier this year, Ontario gave universities and colleges $1.3 billion in special and time-limited funding that will help offset some of that pressure over the next three years, but only to a moderate extent. Of that money, $903 million goes to operating expenses, and universities will likely receive up to three-quarters of that amount. COU says the new provincial money is about one-third of the increase recommended a year ago by the government’s own expert panel on higher education funding.

COU has strategically focused on the growing gap between available university places and student demand. This is easier to understand than the complexity of university finances.

The COU took its own data on growing demand in the 18 to 24 age group and combined it with government population estimates to forecast a difference of 100,000 students. This is the kind of work one would expect from the government itself, but identifying the problem will lead to nagging questions about the solution, and it is easier to pretend that everything is fine.

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It’s a little-noticed fact, but the number of students admitted to Ontario universities is determined not by demand from academically qualified students, but by the government’s willingness to spend. It’s a rationing system much like the one that limits healthcare in Ontario. The total number of students has not changed significantly since 2016, despite the rapidly growing population.

The provincial government sets an enrollment target for each university. There is some flexibility, but if a university admits fewer students than the lower end of the target, its government support may be reduced. If the university exceeds the upper limit of the target range, it does not receive grants for these additional students. There are currently approximately 28,000 such unsupported students at Ontario universities.

One could reasonably argue about how university costs should be divided between students and the government, but it is unrealistic to freeze tuition fees, freeze grants per student, and freeze the number of students.

David Orsini, president and CEO of the University Council, says the universities and the Ford government are negotiating a new five-year agreement and he is cautiously optimistic that a solution will be found.

It really should be. The Ford government certainly understands that a well-functioning university sector supports its economic growth goals. Ford has already said he wants to put Ontario’s children first when it comes to medical schools, but an underdeveloped university system will deny many other Ontario children the chance to get the education they need.

National Post

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