Are BYU’s recent red zone woes fixable?

No sooner had the clock struck zero against Kansas than there were heated rumors about the BYU offense and its coordinator. The criticism was certainly justified, as BYU’s offense wasted a near-perfect defensive effort against the Jayhawks, one of the best offenses in the country over the last month. But how bad is this really for BYU’s offense?

Three touchdowns in the last 10 quarters is objectively bad, but that statistic is also misleading. BYU was in control the entire second half against UCF, while Utah stifled BYU with a top-10 defense and a rowdy environment. Meanwhile, BYU’s offensive output against Kansas does not reflect their final point totals.

Between the 20s, BYU moved the ball at will against Kansas, averaging 6.2 yards per play and reaching the red zone on 4 of 8 passes. However, once they got there, BYU seemed to have no answers, gaining 19 yards on 9 plays in the red zone while settling for 6 total scores and no touchdowns. This is alarming. One of the common themes over the last 10 quarters for BYU has been their inability to score touchdowns in the red zone. BYU has dropped from 25th in red zone TD% this season to 99th in three weeks. The question we’re answering today is, is this a reflection of play calling or execution? I would say the main issue is execution. Let’s illustrate this with missed opportunities on each of BYU’s four red zone trips against Kansas.

On 2nd-and-7, Retzlaff wasn’t quick enough to get to the edge on a read option and ended up losing a yard on third-and-long. On this third and long, Retzlaff is accelerated by a free hitter right in his face and has to make a pass before Lassiter can get out of his break. What could have been a TD if Retzlaff had time went incomplete and BYU settled for a field goal.

This trip ultimately decided the outcome of the game. Calling a goal line penalty on first and goal from the 5-yard line is certainly a bad play call, but it’s less bad when you zoom out and see BYU had multiple receivers break down on the back end of the play. This bad play call becomes disastrous when the ball hits the opposing defender directly.

“But a coach shouldn’t put his player in a position where he can make a catastrophic mistake,” you might be thinking. If we have the same opinion about Jake Retzlaff, then he shouldn’t be the starting quarterback. Retzlaff’s play on the field earned him the right to throw the ball beyond the 5-yard line. Coming into the game, Retzlaff was 7/8 in scoring situations with 7 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Sure, he made a bad shot, but that’s the exception rather than the rule this season.

In my opinion, BYU’s rush to open the second half reflects my issues with the way offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick called the game for BYU. The 17-play, 10-minute drive did not result in a loss for BYU, but ensured that Kansas would have a chance to win in the 4th quarter if BYU did not play perfectly on offense the rest of the way. That pressure became even more acute when BYU was forced to settle for a field goal. On 3rd-and-6 from the 20, BYU runs a speed option to the far side. Reed the defender stays with Retzlaff, but instead of turning it over to Ropati with the blockers on the outside, he keeps it and gets tackled by the read defender for a 3-yard gain. This is where BYU has struggled all year, but BYU’s decision to run the clock made it necessary for BYU to score points in this race. BYU settles for a field goal.

After several stalled drives, BYU needed one more miracle drive to win the game. BYU closes the field too quickly and reaches the red zone just in time for the two-minute timeout. Oddly enough, BYU chooses to play clock control with three runs in a row rather than giving themselves a chance to get the ball back if they don’t score. Running the ball isn’t necessarily a bad option considering how well BYU ran it all night. We can debate whether there is a 3rd and 6th speed option, but this play has worked for BYU all year as well. He was well blocked by the line, but Retzlaff throws the ball too early while the WR explodes on his block, leaving two Kansas defenders a chance to stop the ball.

The viewer is now given BYU discretion on the 4th and 6th play calls. If that ball had been caught in time, designated linebacker Chase Roberts would have been left alone for the touchdown. Instead, it’s a false start and 4th and 6th become 4th and 11th. On this play, 4th and 11, Etienne is knocked off the line and Retzlaff is forced to dump him short of the sticks, taking the hit. Roberts fails. Ball game.

I’m only making this film to show that BYU’s offense is not broken. They simply didn’t capitalize on key moments in an even game. By every metric except red zone efficiency, this is perhaps BYU’s third-best offensive output of the season, trailing only Oklahoma State and UCF. Of course, it doesn’t matter one bit if the ball doesn’t cross the goal line, but if their red zone efficiency against Kansas simply matches their season averages, BYU wins the game by two touchdowns and this article will never be written.

The good news is that poor execution is more fixable than lack of talent or poor OC. BYU certainly has talent, and BYU fans have criminally underestimated Aaron Roderick this season. Before Roderick took over play-calling duties at BYU, BYU had finished better than 58th nationally in yards per play once in 10 years (averaging 72nd). BYU has been in the top 40 every year, but one year it was in the top 15 for three seasons. Not to mention, Roderick sent back-to-back quarterbacks to the NFL Draft for the first time in over 30 years and took Jake Retzlaff from the worst Power 4 quarterback to the top 30 quarterback in the country.

One of the criticisms I often hear about Roderick is that he is a great play designer, but not a very good player. I’d say it’s hard to notice a great game designer unless they’re also a great gamer, but I digress. However, one criticism that I think is fair is that it can be a shady game and clock manager. Roderick calls the offense like he’s a log roller. He tries to throw his opponent off balance by speeding up the pace and suddenly stopping. We speed up again before slowing down. Sometimes this works in BYU’s favor, as it did against UCF and Oklahoma State. Other times, he throws himself off the beam instead, as he did against Kansas.

Roderick called the offense in the second half like he was playing defense. This is my biggest problem. BYU was more concerned with keeping Kansas off the field than scoring points. BYU’s defense is good enough to not need clock protection, while the offense gets into offensive scoring position better than almost anyone in the country. However, they continue to play close games because the offense hasn’t given them enough opportunities to really light up the scoreboard as they rank 109th nationally in total plays per game. BYU’s offense has been at its best this season when they play fast. Pick up the pace a little and I’m confident BYU will be playing in Arlington in three weeks.