Who will replace Mitch McConnell as Senate GOP leader?

MARY CLAIRE JALONICK, Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) — Senate Republicans vying to replace longtime leader Mitch McConnell are crisscrossing the country to campaign and raise funds for colleagues as they make their final arguments before a follow-up vote a week after the presidential election. But their appearances have largely taken place behind closed doors, and most GOP senators have not yet said which lawmaker they support.

John Thune of South Dakota, McConnell’s current No. 2, and John Cornyn of Texas, who held the post before Thune, are the frontrunners in the Nov. 13 secret ballot to replace McConnell. The Kentucky senator is stepping down from office in January after nearly two decades as leader. The winner could determine the party’s direction for years to come and could become the next Senate majority leader if Republicans win enough seats in Tuesday’s elections.

The result is still unclear.

Only a few Republican senators publicly supported the candidate. Many say they have not yet decided. The third senator in the race, Florida Sen. Rick Scott, who is pursuing his own re-election bid, could be a spoiler. Another candidate can still join.

In many ways, the “two Johns” are remarkably similar, making it difficult to choose their counterparts. Both are widely popular and, like McConnell, lean toward the more traditional wing of the Republican Party. But both also suggested they would try to move on from the McConnell era with a more open approach.

“I’m trying to find differences because they’re both great guys,” said Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., who has worked closely with both of them.

The two men are also trying to distinguish themselves from McConnell by making clear they support Donald Trump in this year’s presidential election. Like McConnell, they have both clashed with Trump in the past, most notably after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. But both Thune and Cornyn have spoken frequently with Trump in recent months, attending campaign events and visiting his home in Florida.

Whether Trump wins and whether he backs one of the contenders could be the determining factor.

“I don’t know what he’ll do,” Cornyn said of Trump in September. “But this is obviously an election between senators, and I think that’s where the voters are.”

Some of the former president’s strongest allies in the Senate are urging him to stay out of the fight. Oklahoma Sen. Markwayne Mullin, who supports Thune, says he tried to dissuade Trump from supporting him. Trump understands “the need to work with whoever the next leader is,” Mullin said.

Tillis suggested Trump’s support could backfire.

“You have to be careful with the psychology of the Senate,” Tillis said. “We know each other very well and spend hours and hours together. It’s a pretty small club.”

Still, both Cornyn and Thune remain close to Trump. Cornyn met Trump during a trip to Texas in October and appeared at a rally in Nevada. In August, Thune attended an event with Trump’s running mate, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance.

Thune, who said after the Jan. 6 attack that Trump’s efforts to disrupt the peaceful transfer of power were “inexcusable,” told The Associated Press over the summer that he views their potential relationship as professional. If they both win the election, Thune said, “we’ll have a job.”

Scott, meanwhile, is a longtime friend of Trump and has positioned himself as a strong ally. Scott traveled to New York to support Trump during Trump’s hush money trial. Trump could back Scott in the fight, potentially gaining more votes for the Florida senator or giving him leverage in the race.

In addition to private meetings, Thune and Cornyn flew around the country to raise funds and campaign for their fellow senators.

Thune has made more than two dozen campaign stops for GOP Senate candidates, and aides say he has raised more than $31 million for Senate campaigns this election cycle, including funneling $4 million to Republican Senate campaigns.

Cornyn similarly sought out candidates and poured money into elections in Texas. His aides highlight his long history of fundraising for Republicans — more than $400 million during his 22 years in the Senate, his office says.

In politics, these two people are similar: they vote generally in accordance with the course of the conference, but sometimes cooperate with the Democrats. Cornyn is a longtime member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, which took a leading role on bipartisan gun legislation two years ago. Thune served opposite as the former chairman of the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee.

It is unclear whether either of them will be able to win the support of the growing minority of Republican senators who have battled McConnell in recent years as he championed aid to Ukraine and criticized Trump. Many of this group voted for Scott when he challenged McConnell after the 2022 election.