Vijay’s proposal could destroy Tamil Nadu coalitions, but there are certain conditions

Actor-turned-politician Vijay needs coalition partners. He is willing to share power with those who join him, that is, offer them positions in the government, if he can lead them to victory in the upcoming Tamil Nadu assembly elections to be held in 2026.

However, Thirumavalavan, chief of the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), an ally of Vijay’s elected rival Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), gave Vijay unsolicited advice in one of his first reactions to the demands and suggestions. “The proposal should be the last straw in the political arena. It should also be, as far as possible, an indirect program. But the demands may be clear from the very beginning,” a VCC leader and Member of Parliament from Chidambaram constituency said recently.

Vijay seeks to destroy existing coalitions

The Tamil Nadu electorate can be divided into two broad groups. Those who have long-standing loyalty to the DMK and those who are against it. Thus the All India Anna Dravida Kazhagam (AIADMK) was born. Vijay is clearly targeting the latter, making him a natural ally of former chief minister Edappadi Palanisamy. Let’s put that thought aside for a moment.

Thirumavalavan, who is often called the tallest Dalit leader in modern Tamil Nadu politics, may be implying that Vijay may be letting the cat among the pigeons too early as elections are about two years away.

With Vijay making it clear that he is recruiting coalition partners, leaders of smaller parties may have to demonstrate their loyalty to their senior partners, as Thirumavalavan did, before engaging in talks with Vijay. However, there is still enough time for a shake-up in existing alliances.

Vijay’s likely partners and their problems

These are early days for Joseph Vijay Chandrasekhar as a politician, but his Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) has already shown potential to become the third axis. For decades, Tamil Nadu has been accustomed to a bipolar rivalry between the DMK, which has held the presidency since 2021, and the AIADMK.

While Vijay has so far identified the DMK and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) at the national level as clear rivals, TVK could become an existential threat to at least some smaller parties outside the two coalitions led by DMK and AIADMK.

These small political factions, limited by region or caste, often achieved only less than 20% of the state’s votes. Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK), led by fellow actor-turned-politician Seeman, received 6.6% votes in 2021, the highest among non-aligned election contenders.

The vote difference could become even smaller in a multi-party fight in 2026, making coalition partners invaluable. The DMK and AIADMK may have a tough time retaining their old friends when the man luring them is an actor at the peak of his career who is jumping into politics and drawing thousands of young people to his first rally as a politician. hard to ignore.

The window is open for the likes of Pattali Makkal Katchi (vote share 3.8% in 2021) – an ally of the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections – and, some might argue, even for the Indian National Congress (an ally of the DMK) with 4 .3% of the vote in the last state election.

However, both parties, left to their own devices, have limited political weight in the state. And parties with a long history may not be inclined to play second fiddle to the youngest kid on the block.

Is a TVK-AIADMK alliance possible?

As of now, the easiest way for Vijay to unite is with AIADMK and NTK. Together, these three parties have the potential to win half of all votes, if not more.

However, the alliance will have to resolve a difficult issue later. Who will become the chief minister if they win? The same problem comes up again: who would want to play second fiddle?

Siman has already stated that he will continue to fight alone.

AIADMK chief Edappadi Palanisamy has already proven his mettle against all odds by completing a full term as the state’s chief minister until 2021. Palanisamy has been active in politics since 1974. It is unlikely that the 70-year-old former chief minister will accept newcomer Vijay as his boss.

What Vijay can learn from actors who have recently become politicians

Another actor-turned-politician Pawan Kalyan has set an example for the neighboring state of Andhra Pradesh. Kalyan seemed to candidly acknowledge his limited political clout and agreed to act as a bridge in building an alliance between Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and the BJP. He added voices, places and charm to his political persona.

At this stage, Vijay has every reason to believe that his star power is far superior to Pawan Kalyan’s. He might even be right. But wise men should remember that politics can be more humiliating than one might think, as his senior colleague in the film industry learned this the hard way.

Kamal Haasan, another big film star, started by throwing a torch (symbol of his party) at a television (symbol of the DMK-led establishment) in one of his election campaign advertisements. His large fan base built over decades has not translated into votes in 2021 and ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, he joined the same DMK coalition that he wanted to rally against.

Vijay studied under the late Captain Vijaykanth.

Vijay appears to be following in the footsteps of the late Vijaykanth, another actor who entered politics in 2005.

The first TVK rally was held at Vikravandi, about 70 kilometers from Vridhachalam, from where Captain Vijaykanth moved his team. Vijay is targeting voters in the same belt in the northern districts of Tamil Nadu.

Vijay fans can have high hopes from the late Vijaykanth’s political journey with the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), which began in 2005 and by 2011, he was already the largest opposition in the state; despite the presence of stalwarts like J Jayalalithaa and K Karunanidhi.

Vijay’s rise came after two iconic leaders passed away, leaving behind a huge political vacuum.

Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa underestimated Vijaykanth’s political potential at that time. The peak of his popularity has long passed, unlike Vijay, whose acting career is at its peak when he enters politics.

Both the DMK and AIADMK would do well not to underestimate TVK, and Vijay should remember that the same fans who call him the GOAT of Tamil cinema are not necessarily going to be voters.