How past hurricanes and tropical storms affected US elections

Since the country’s founding in 1776, tropical cyclones have caused problems for elections, influencing voter sentiment and sometimes changing election dates.

Although few cyclones affected the elections held in November, their effects led to changes in the weeks and even months before election day.

The two most notable cyclones are Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and Hurricane Sandy in 2012, which caused billions of dollars in damage.

Both cyclones prompted officials to take emergency measures and, in the case of Katrina, forced the postponement of elections.

Here’s a look at some of the recent hurricanes that impacted the US election.

WEATHER CAN BENEFIT VOTER TURNOUT

Hurricane Nicole – November 2022

Nicole is known for being only the third hurricane to make landfall in Florida in November.

The cyclone developed on November 7 and reached the coast only three days later, on November 10.

The National Hurricane Center issued a hurricane warning for much of Florida’s east coast on Election Day ahead of the cyclone’s impact.

Despite warnings and evacuation notices, most of the impacts occurred after the vote, limiting the impact on the electoral process.

At least 11 people were killed by the storm in the Caribbean and Florida, and damage was estimated at about $1 billion.

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Hurricane Dorian – September 2019

The special election to fill the vacancy in North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District came just days after Hurricane Dorian made landfall near Cape Hatteras as a Category 2 cyclone.

The area covers the region south of Raleigh and east of Charlotte and was impacted by the outer edges of the storm.

Having devastated the Bahamas, the hurricane made landfall on the morning of Friday, September 6th.

Because of the fallout, the state has implemented additional early voting hours to allow affected voters to cast ballots before Election Day on Sept. 10.

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Hurricane Florence – September 2018

A Category 1 hurricane struck North Carolina and South Carolina in mid-September, raising concerns about early voting during the midterm elections.

The North Carolina State Board’s office said absentee ballots were sent to counties that were unable to do so due to flooding and utility outages.

The storm system set South Carolina’s record for the wettest cyclone, dropping an estimated 35.93 inches over the eastern part of the state.

Estimated damage to Florence totaled more than $24 million across three southeastern states.

Hurricane Andrew Timeline: On This Day, August 24, 1992

Hurricane Sandy – November 2012

The superstorm made landfall near Atlantic City, New Jersey just a week before the November 6, 2012 presidential election.

The storm system had wind strength of a Category 1 hurricane with a maximum storm surge of about 13 feet.

There were major disruptions at polling places in New York and New Jersey, but officials enacted emergency regulations to mitigate the impact on voters.

In addition to setting up temporary polling places, New York and New Jersey have extended the deadline to request absentee ballots.

Garden State officials have even allowed some affected voters to request, receive and mail ballots by fax or email.

Turnout in the region affected by Sandy was down, according to a congressional research report, but it is unclear whether the lack of voter participation was solely the result of the historic storm system.

Look Back: The Legacy of Hurricane Katrina 19 Years Later

Hurricane Katrina – August 2005

The deadliest hurricane to hit the Lower 48 in the modern era struck the northern Gulf Coast as a powerful Category 3 on Aug. 29.

An estimated 1,392 people died and damage was estimated at approximately $125 billion.

More than half a million residents in southeast Louisiana were reported to have been displaced, putting a strain on the election system.

After Hurricane Katrina, several primary elections were postponed, and even with date changes, polling places reported a significant drop in participation.

Other storms surrounding November Election Day

Overall, the FOX Forecast Center reports that six storms made landfall in the week following November’s Election Day: Nicole in 2022, Mitch in 1998, storms known as “The Seven” in 1946 and 1935, Storm Eight in 1861 and Storm of 1904. Six.

The 1904 storm was the only one to make landfall during a presidential election, arriving in Florida as a tropical storm on November 3.

Not a single hurricane hit the United States on Election Day.

Impact of storms on voters

Outside the impact zone, the state of the hurricane response served as a motivating force among likely voters.

For example, in 1992, FEMA’s response to Hurricane Andrew in South Florida was largely perceived by the public as inadequate, resulting in the state’s 25 electoral votes being put up for sale.

Similarly, in 2012, Superstorm Sandy tore through the eastern United States, affecting President Barack Obama’s re-election bid.

At the time, a national exit poll showed that the hurricane response was an important factor for 15% of voters.

In 2024, Hurricane Helen affected voters in several southern swing states, but political experts say it will likely take months, if not longer, to accurately determine the impact on the electorate.