Israel’s path of destruction in southern Lebanon raises concerns about attempt to create buffer zone

More than 1 million people fled the bombing, devastating much of the south. Some experts say Israel may be seeking to create a depopulated buffer zone, a strategy it has already deployed along its border with the Gaza Strip.

Some of the conditions for creating such a zone appear to have already been in place, according to an analysis of satellite images and data collected by mapping experts that show the scale of destruction in 11 villages near the border.

The Israeli military said the bombing was necessary to destroy Hezbollah tunnels and other infrastructure it said the group had established in the cities. The explosions also destroyed houses, neighborhoods and sometimes entire villages where families had lived for generations.

Israel says it aims to push Hezbollah far enough back so its citizens can safely return to their homes in the north, but Israeli officials admit they have no concrete plan to ensure Hezbollah stays away from the border in long term. This is a key moment in the United States’ efforts to achieve a ceasefire.

Orna Mizrachi, a senior fellow at the Israel Institute for National Security Studies, said Israel’s immediate goal is not to create a buffer zone, but that could change.

“We may have no choice but to stay there until an agreement is reached that promises us that Hezbollah will not return to the area,” she said.

Troops entered southern Lebanon on October 1, accompanied by heavy bombing that has since intensified.

Using satellite imagery provided by PBC’s Planet Labs, the AP identified a string of 11 villages – all within 4 miles of Lebanon’s border with Israel – that were severely damaged over the past month either by strikes or by explosives planted by Israeli soldiers.

The analysis found that the heaviest damage in the South occurred in villages closest to the border, with between 100 and 500 buildings likely destroyed or damaged in each village, according to Corey Sher of the CUNY Alumni Center and Jamon Van Der Hoek of State University. Oregon Damage Assessment Experts.

In Ramya, on a hilltop in the center of the village, almost no buildings are still standing after the controlled explosion that Israeli soldiers showed in videos posted on social media. In the nearby town of Aita al-Shaab, a village with strong Hezbollah influence, the bombing turned the hilltop with the largest concentration of buildings into a gray wasteland of rubble.

In other villages the damage is more selective. Some blocks of houses bear scars from the bombing; in others, some houses were destroyed while their neighbors were left untouched.

Another controlled explosion leveled much of the village of Odeisa, with the blast so powerful it raised earthquake alarms in Israel.

Video footage of the explosion showed Lubnan Baalbaki, conductor of the Lebanese Philharmonic Orchestra, watching in disbelief as his parents’ home, which housed the art collection and library his father spent years building, was destroyed.

“This house was a project and a dream for both my parents,” he told the AP. The graves of his parents in the garden are now lost.

When asked whether their intention was to create a buffer zone, the Israeli military said it was “conducting localized, limited, targeted raids based on accurate intelligence” against Hezbollah targets. They said Hezbollah had “deliberately built” weapons into homes and villages.

Israeli journalist Danny Kushmaro even helped blow up a house that the military said was used to store Hezbollah ammunition. In the TV segment, Kushmaro and the soldiers counted down the time before pressing a button, causing a massive explosion.

Videos posted online by Israeli military personnel and individual soldiers showed Israeli troops planting flags on Lebanese soil. However, Israel has not built any bases and has failed to maintain a permanent presence in southern Lebanon. Troops appear to be moving back and forth across the border, sometimes under heavy fire from Hezbollah.

October was the deadliest month of 2024 for the Israeli military, with about 60 soldiers killed.

The bombing was accompanied by Israeli attacks on UN troops and the Lebanese Army – forces that, according to international law, are supposed to maintain peace in the area. Israel has long complained that their presence has not stopped Hezbollah from building up its infrastructure in the south.

Israel denies it carried out strikes against any force.

The Lebanese military said at least 11 of its soldiers were killed in eight Israeli strikes either on their positions or while assisting in the evacuation.

The peacekeeping force, known as UNIFIL, said its forces and infrastructure had been damaged at least 30 times since late September, 20 of which it blamed on the Israeli military for fire or actions, “of which seven were clearly deliberate.”

A rocket, likely fired by Hezbollah or an allied group, hit UNIFIL headquarters in Naqoura on Tuesday, leaving several people slightly injured, UNIFIL spokeswoman Andrea Tenenti said.

UNIFIL has refused to leave southern Lebanon despite calls from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to leave.

Experts warn that the situation could change if the peacekeepers come under even more fire.

“If you go from a UN that is taking casualties to a UN that is actually accepting casualties,” some troop-contributing countries may “say ‘enough is enough’ and you could see the mission start to crumble,” said Richard Gowan of the International crisis group.

International ceasefire efforts appear to be focused on implementing UN Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah.

It specified that Israeli forces would withdraw completely from Lebanon, and that the Lebanese army and UNIFIL, not Hezbollah, would have the exclusive armed presence in an area about 15 miles from the border.

But the resolution was not fully implemented. Hezbollah has never left the border area, and Lebanon accuses Israel of continuing to occupy small areas of its land and carrying out frequent military overflights over its territory.

During a recent visit to Beirut, US envoy Amos Hochstein said a new agreement was needed to implement Resolution 1701.

Israel may be trying to force an agreement through the destruction in southern Lebanon.

Yossi Yehoshua, a war correspondent for the Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronot, wrote that the military needs to “further consolidate its operational gains” to push Hezbollah, the Lebanese government and mediating countries to “accept an end (of the war) on favorable terms.” for Israel.”

Some Lebanese fear this means the occupation of parts of the country’s south, 25 years after Israel ended its occupation there.

Lebanese parliamentarian Mark Dow, a critic of both Hezbollah and Israel’s military operations in Lebanon, said he believes Israel is trying to weaken Hezbollah’s capabilities and make Lebanese society “against the will to resist the Israeli invasion.”

Govan of the International Crisis Group said one of the goals of Resolution 1701 was to give the Lebanese army enough credibility that it, rather than Hezbollah, would be seen as the “legitimate protector” in the south.

“This will disappear if they become the (Israeli) gendarmerie of southern Lebanon,” he said.