Ohio State vs. Penn State Prediction: Who Will Win and Why?

The Game of the Week pits No. 4 Ohio State on the road in Happy Valley against No. 3 Penn State in Week 10 of college football on Saturday. Here’s what you should keep an eye on, along with our updated prediction for the game.

“Everything” may not be on the line for Ohio State here, but with one loss already on the cards, its Big Ten and playoff hopes will take a major blow with another road loss to a top-ranked conference opponent .

Penn State has more leeway: It’s among the few remaining undefeated teams in college football and is working on another strong defense and home-field advantage as head coach James Franklin looks to finally beat the Buckeyes, or any top-five team for that matter. . .

What can we expect when the Nittany Lions take on the Buckeyes in this Big Ten matchup?

Here’s what you should pay attention to when Ohio State and Penn State square off in college football rivalry in Week 10, with our updated prediction of what’s to come.

1. Battle on the line. All eyes are on the Buckeyes’ blind side after star left tackle Josh Simmons was lost for the year to injury and then his replacement, Zen Michalski, had his own problem.

That line became an issue in the narrow win over a Nebraska defense that had held Indiana to 56 points the week before, leading to some season-low offensive output for the Buckeyes, especially on the ground.

This unit now faces a Penn State offensive line that is one of the most physical and aggressive in the country, posting 46 negative plays, averaging 2 sacks per game and allowing 93 yards per game.

2. On the ground. Ohio State ranks second in the nation in total defense and sixth in rushing rush, allowing just 5 touchdowns and just 2.84 yards per carry against opposing quarterbacks, and now faces Penn State’s dynamic duo in the backfield.

Kaytron Allen had 509 yards this season and Nicholas Singleton had another 493 yards for an offense that ranks 28th in the FBS with 5.13 yards per carry and 13 total touchdowns.

3. Surveillance for injuries. Drew Allar has led the Big Ten in rushing yards and touchdowns over the past two years, but the quarterback’s 20-game starting streak remains an open question after he was injured last week at Wisconsin. Signs point to his play, but any limitations on his part could derail Penn State’s offensive efforts.

But even if he does take the field, the Nittany Lions could still use backup Beau Pribula, who helped win last week’s game with a touchdown and is a legitimate rushing threat in his own right and adds a dose of unpredictability that can pack a real punch. flare up on offense if things slow down.

In this case, most analytical models give the Buckeyes the edge over the Nittany Lions.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer forecasting model that uses data from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

How does this model anticipate events in Happy Valley this weekend?

Ohio State takes the lead in most votes 60.9 percent computer simulation game, while the University of Pennsylvania became the presumptive winner in another 39.1 percent Sims.

And when it comes to the margin of victory? Expect a close game, but with spread coverage.

Ohio State is projected to be 4 points better the same field in the computer simulation has more than the state of Pennsylvania, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Ohio State was 28.4 points better than his opponents on average this season, based on win-loss performance differentials.

Penn State was 19 points better than its competitors on average in 2024.

Over the last three games, however, those numbers have gotten much closer.

Ohio State is 10.3 points better than its opponents during that time, while Penn State averaged 11.3 points better than the other team in that span.

Penn State dominated at home, averaging another 23.3 points than the competition of playing on the grounds of Beaver Stadium.

Ohio State was 16 points better average when playing on the road, although those results are skewed by winning Michigan State by 31 and losing to Oregon by 1.

Ohio State is 3.5 point favorite vs. Penn State, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total on 47.5 points per game (Over -105, Under -115).

And that set Ohio State’s money line odds at -150 and for the state of Pennsylvania in +125 win outright.

This is starting to look all too familiar for Penn State. Four times in the last seven years the Nittany Lions went undefeated before the Buckeyes handed them their first blowout loss.

But while Happy Valley waits for James Franklin to turn into Jim Harbaugh and finally break that curse with a small winning streak, this matchup still suggests otherwise.

Penn State’s defensive record is admirable, but consider the competition. He has yet to face an offense that ranks in the top 30 nationally and has only one top 50 thrower against it, and that was against a USC team that led by two touchdowns at one point before Tyler Warren almost single-handedly led this comeback. .

And he hasn’t faced an Ohio State-caliber defense, let alone a rotation of top-notch offensive players that stretch the Nittany Lions’ secondary early and often.

There is a noticeable skill difference between the receiving rate the Buckeyes can bring to the field, especially when combined with a 1-2 push in the backfield that averages 5.44 yards per carry with TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshawn Judkins balancing out situation.

But expect this game to start in the fourth quarter, with Penn State’s edge rushers pushing Buckeyes quarterback Will Howard into the pocket and forcing him to make several hasty throws before his guys can open the ball.

Howard has some strategic mobility that could help him lengthen these plays when he’s under pressure, but he doesn’t have the speed that could easily outsmart the Nittany Lions’ pursuers on a consistent basis, especially with that glaring problem at left tackle. still to be decided.

This makes the game tense throughout the game, but eventually the dam breaks and Ohio State not only has the strength to force Allard (if he plays, and he has always struggled under pressure) into some gaffes of his own, but speed to take the top off this defense when it matters.

College football staff selects…

Read More… Ohio State vs. Penn State Score Prediction Using Expert Model

When: Saturday, November 2.
Time: 12:00 pm Eastern Time.
TV: Fox Network

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Game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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