Analytics predicts the outcome of the last four football matches of the Gophers

The Gophers begin a key two-game stretch against Illinois this week before heading to Rutgers to take on the Scarlet Knights. They will then have a bye week before the final home game of the season against Penn State, followed by a road test at Wisconsin to close out the regular season.

After three wins in a row, Minnesota is 5-3. ESPN’s FPI forecaster expects how many games will the Gophers win? Let’s go week by week looking at the percentage chance that the machine says they should walk away with the win.

The Gophers travel to Champaign as the betting favorite to beat No. 24 Illinois, and ESPN’s FPI agrees with the betting markets. A win on Saturday could set up a thrilling conclusion to the 2024 regular season.

On paper, Minnesota’s game against Rutgers is the easiest game remaining on the schedule. ESPN’s FPI agrees, giving the Gophers a 56.9% chance of winning. P.J. Fleck will meet with his protégé, head coach Greg Schiano, as well as former offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca and former defensive end Athan Kaliakmanis. This seems to be the best place to forecast for the Gophers.

The toughest game remaining on the Gophers’ schedule is a date with Penn State, currently ranked third in the country. The matchup comes exactly 262 weeks after Minnesota’s thrilling loss to the then fourth-ranked Nittany Lions in 2019. ESPN’s FPI gives the Gophers a 27.7% chance of overcoming the loss, but Penn State has looked vulnerable this season.

Minnesota will finish the season on the road against Wisconsin, but this year the game will take place on Black Friday. ESPN’s FPI gives the Gophers a 38.9% chance to win in Madison, something they have done only twice since 1994. A contending win on the road could be the perfect way for the Gophers to end a turbulent 2024 regular season.