New England drought increases wildfire risk amid dry conditions

Statewide, this is the worst drought since 2022. However, by October of that year, drought conditions began to improve. This year, drought conditions gradually worsened starting in August. The combination of dry conditions, freshly fallen leaves and gusty winds has created hazardous conditions for wildfires.

Dave Celino, chief wildfire warden for the Massachusetts Department of Conservation and Recreation, said, “We have all three parts of the wildfire triangle – weather, fuels and topography.” Celino said sudden changes in temperature make conditions worse for firefighters.

Since Oct. 1, there have been 185 wildfires in Massachusetts that have burned a total of at least 600 acres, including the Cane Hill Fire in Salem, which burned approximately 135 acres, and the Middleton Pond wildfire (166 acres).

The National Weather Service team worked daily with officials in Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island to determine whether weather conditions warranted issuing a red flag warning like the one issued last Sunday for southern New England. Red flag warnings are issued when fire danger is high due to high temperatures, low humidity levels and high winds. It is important to understand that even without warnings, conditions are ripe for fires.

“If the ground is dry, low relative humidity is less important to fire behavior, the damage has already been done,” Loconto said.

Bringing wind into the equation will dramatically increase the risk of wildfires. Embers from backyard fires or a spark from a cigarette can at some point cause a wildfire to get out of control.

Additional forces have been deployed to extinguish the fire. In addition to local firefighters, crews from DCR, the Department of Fire Services (DFS), and the Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency (MEMA) are helping contain wildfires. Celino said the Massachusetts National Guard most recently provided air support to fight large wildfires near Salem and Middleton.

Their Black Hawk helicopters dropped more than 25,000 gallons of water on the Salem fire Sunday, helping firefighters contain the flames.

Prior to these recent showers, the Boston area had not seen any significant rainfall for over two weeks (since October 14th). Andrew Loconto, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Norton, says “local river flows are only 5-15% of normal,” another sign of worsening drought conditions.

Parts of New Hampshire, Vermont and Maine received the “heaviest rain” overnight – only about half an inch.

Jennifer Francis, a senior scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center, said most of the country is experiencing dry conditions, except for areas in the path of Hurricanes Helen and Milton. As our climate changes, we fall into stable patterns—several days of the same weather pattern. For example, a consistently warmer atmosphere reduces variations in our weather patterns, including storm tracks.

“The frequency of sustained jet streams increases over time, especially when the Arctic is warm,” said Francis, whose research examines patterns in which jet streams remain in place for four days or more.

Wet patterns can also come into play during these persistent periods. The switch between dry and wet weather is what Francis calls a “weather shock.” Francis said: “Climate models show a much larger increase in whiplash cases.” The consequences of this could mean that areas experiencing drought conditions could quickly experience flooding.

As the planet warms, the growing season is also getting longer. David Butte, a professor of hydrogeology at the University of Massachusetts, said the longer growing season brings new challenges. “As we lengthen the growing season due to climate change, it changes the water balance, making us more susceptible to rapidly occurring dry periods,” Boutte said.

Essentially, a longer growing season means plants need more water. If a region remains dry for a long growing season, drought becomes more likely. Compounding the problem, higher temperatures also increase the rate of evaporation from soils, rivers and reservoirs, depleting water supplies faster and leaving less water for agriculture, ecosystems and human use.

Adam Allgood, a meteorologist at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, which specializes in monitoring and forecasting climate conditions over a variety of time scales, ranging from weeks to seasons, said prospects for eradicating this drought in New England are slim.

“There will be a chance of precipitation over the next couple of weeks, but not enough to get us out of the hole,” Allgood said. Our window for getting meaningful relief is short. He said: “November is generally a good period for groundwater recharge before the ground freezes and the winter months arrive.” Unfortunately, for now, November looks set to start off dry.

November is typically the second wettest month of the year for Boston and many places throughout New England, averaging 3.80 inches less than the March average of 3.90 inches.