What’s at stake for Ukraine and Russia – DW – 10/30/2024

The outcome of the US presidential election will not only determine the course of the country’s future. This will also have a significant impact on Ukraine.

America has been Ukraine’s biggest backer in its bid to defend against a Russian invasion in 2022. Under President Joe Biden, the US has so far provided nearly $175 billion (€161 billion) worth of military intelligence, cash and advanced weapons to help Ukraine. .

Whoever is elected president on November 5th can hold the fate of Ukraine in his hands. By the time this candidate is inaugurated on January 20, 2025, the war in Ukraine will have lasted nearly three years.

The U.S. has three options: cut aid to Ukraine, maintain the status quo or move to a more aggressive approach, said Michaela Mattes, a political science professor at the University of California, Berkeley, who specializes in international conflict and cooperation.

Kamala Harris, Russia and the war in Ukraine

Democratic presidential candidate and current Vice President Kamala Harris has made her support for Ukraine clear.

“Harris has promised to stay with Ukraine as long as necessary,” Sean Donahue, a clinical assistant professor of political science at the University at Buffalo in New York, told DW. He says Harris would also be “more likely to allow US long-range weapons to be used against targets inside Russia.”

Mattes agrees that at the very least, Harris will continue to maintain the status quo, support Ukraine and keep Russian sanctions in place. She might even become more assertive and take a more decisive stance to gain a reputation as a strong leader.

For the vice president, European security and global stability are at stake. “Harris believes Russia is a dangerous country that has violated international law and has also done something immoral, and Russia cannot be trusted,” Matts said.

Donald Trump, Russia and the war in Ukraine

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has a different approach to Ukraine and has surrounded himself with like-minded advisers.

Trump has a complicated history with Ukraine, including his attempt to pressure President Volodymyr Zelensky to investigate Biden, which led to his first impeachment.

Pointing to his relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump claims there would be no war if he were president.

Now the former president is promising to end the war “within 24 hours” if he wins re-election. Without details on how this will happen, many believe that any peace agreement will favor Russia.

Trump could force Ukraine to accept some type of frozen conflict roughly along the current battle lines, which would come at the expense of Ukrainian territory, Donahue says. It is unclear whether Putin will accept such terms in the long term, but they will give his armed forces time to rearm.

The Republican nominee also made it clear that Europe should be more supportive of Ukraine, said Dominik Tolksdorff, a fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations and a non-resident senior fellow at the Institute for Global Governance.

Cutting vital aid to Ukraine could make the problem worse. If American support were to cease entirely, it would be difficult for European governments to support Ukraine on their own. That would give the Kremlin more freedom to impose its will on Ukraine, says Tolksdorf, who specializes in US politics and transatlantic relations.

Ukraine and NATO membership

Another pressing issue is Ukraine’s desire to join NATO.

At some point, Harris will likely support Ukraine’s membership in NATO, said Donahue, who has visited Ukraine twice since the war began.

One proposal being discussed is a membership model that would see the country not returning to its 1991 borders. In this case, NATO would be obliged to defend only the territory currently controlled by Ukraine. This would be similar to the situation in West Germany before German reunification.

Trump, on the other hand, has been a vocal critic of NATO, even suggesting that it should not protect some underspending members.

Despite such hostility toward the organization, Trump could bring Ukraine closer to NATO as part of a settlement that would end the war, says Kurt Volker, special envoy for Ukraine from 2017 to 2019. Ukraine’s entry into NATO would be part of “permanent peace and permanent peace.” containment,” he told DW in early October.

The next Congress will have a big say

Changes in congressional majorities will have as big an impact as the new American president as they approve spending bills.

Of the 100 seats in the Senate, 34 are up for election, as are all 435 seats in the House of Representatives. Democratic control of the House of Representatives will be critical for Harris in maintaining arms and aid supplies to Ukraine.

At the same time, many Republicans believe that China, Iran and North Korea are indirectly involved in the war against Ukraine, says Dominik Tolksdorf.

For these lawmakers, defeating Ukraine would be a strategic success for their enemies and “weaken the US position in the world,” he says.

Americans are skeptical about Russia

Another fear is that the American public will become war-weary.

The percentage of Americans who believe Russia’s invasion of Ukraine poses a threat to U.S. interests has dropped significantly since 2022, according to a survey conducted in early July. Pew Research Center.

The survey found that 69% of Americans approve of economic sanctions against Russia, and 54% want to continue sending military equipment to Ukraine. In general, Americans are divided on whether the country has an obligation to help Ukraine at all.

Russia is undoubtedly hoping for a Trump victory, not only because he could help Putin gain a foothold in Ukraine, but also because, as president, he could further divide the United States and destabilize American democracy, Tolksdorf says.

“The Kremlin hopes that the United States under Trump will be primarily concerned with itself and will not be able to be an active player in international politics,” he concluded.

Editor: Davis VanOpdorp