More than half of deaths in Europe are heat-related

Unprecedented temperatures in summer 2022 caused more than 68,000 deaths on the continent, according to a study by the Barcelona Institute of Global Health (ISGlobal), a center supported by the La Caixa Foundation. A new study has now shown that More than half—56%—of heat-related deaths in the summer of 2022 were attributed to human-caused climate change.. According to the study, 38,154 of the 68,593 heat-related deaths in the summer of 2022 would not have occurred without man-made warming.

The starting point was a previous study that, using data on temperature and mortality from 35 European countriesEpidemiological models were fitted to estimate heat-related mortality in the summer of 2022. Using a dataset of global mean surface temperature anomalies. between 1880 and 2022They estimated the increase in temperature due to human-caused warming for each region. They then subtracted this increase from the recorded temperatures to get an estimate of what temperatures would have been in the absence of human-caused warming. Finally, using the model developed in the first study, they estimated mortality for a hypothetical scenario in which such temperatures would occur.

Results published in npj Climate and Atmospheric Scienceshowed that the number of heat-related deaths per million inhabitants attributed to anthropogenic warming was twice as high in southern regions compared to the rest of Europe.

Consistent with previous research, the team found more heat-related deaths linked to climate change among women (22,501 of 37,983 deaths) and people aged 80 years and older (23,881 of 38,978 deaths) as opposed to men (14,026 of 25,385 deaths) and people 64 years of age or younger (2,702 of 5,565 deaths).

“This study sheds light on the extent to which global warming is affecting public health. Although we are seeing an increase in heat-related deaths in almost all countries analyzed, not everyone is being affected equally: women and older people are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of rising temperatures,” says Tessa BeckISGlobal researcher and first author of the study.

Urgent need for ambitious adaptation and mitigation measures

Temperatures in Europe are rising twice as fast as the global average, exacerbating health impacts. But climate change has not only exacerbated heat-related deaths during exceptionally hot summers like 2022. Between 44% and 54% of heat-related deaths between 2015 and 2021 can be attributed to global warming, the study found. In absolute terms, this corresponds to an annual burden of between 19,000 and 28,000 deaths. By comparison, figures for 2022 show an alarming 40% rise in heat-related deaths and a two-thirds rise in deaths attributed to man-made warming.

“Our research urges governments and national authorities in Europe to increase the ambition and effectiveness of surveillance and prevention measures, new adaptation strategies and global mitigation efforts. Without decisive action, record temperatures and heat-related deaths will continue to rise in the coming years,” he says. Joan Ballester ClaramuntPrincipal Investigator of the European Research Council (ERC) consolidator grant EARLY-ADAPT (https://www.early-adapt.eu/).

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Link

Beck TM, Schumacher DL, Acheback H, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Seneviratne SI, Ballester J. Mortality burden associated with anthropogenic warming during the record-breaking 2022 summer in Europe. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. October 2024. Doi: 10.1038/s41612-024-00783-2.

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