How Michigan voters support the presidential race one week before the election

A new poll shows where Michigan voters stand in the presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump a week before Election Day.

Harris leads Trump by 3%

In this poll, Harris leads Trump by 3%, 46.7%-43.7%.

That’s up 0.4 percentage points from our poll in early October, when Harris led by 2.6 percentage points, 46.8% to 44.2%.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received 3.9% of the vote.

Kennedy takes 4.2% of the strong Republican vote, while Harris takes 3.1% of those votes.

Trump and Kennedy each receive only 1% of the strong Democratic vote.

The importance of voter turnout

Among Harris voters, 39.1% plan to vote absentee, 12.3% plan to vote at an early voting site and 46.5% plan to vote on Election Day.

Among Trump voters, 21.1% plan to vote absentee, 16.8% plan to vote at an early voting site and 58.3% plan to vote on Election Day.

With polls showing a lead within the margin of error (+/- 4%), voter turnout will be critical to the presidential race in Michigan.

Harris leads by 30.9% (63.4%-52.5%) among absentee voters and by 43.7% (70%-26.3%) among voters who have already voted absentee.

Republicans have been successful in persuading more voters to go to early voting sites: During our survey in early October, only 8.3% of Trump voters planned to vote early.

Motivation to vote

Voters were asked to rate their likelihood of voting in the presidential election on a scale of 1 to 10.

Both Harris and Trump voters are equally motivated to vote, scoring 9.7 points.

Kennedy voters have a score of 9.1, while undecided voters have a score of 7.1.

Among both Harris and Trump voters, 97% said they would definitely vote.

The most important questions

Here are the most important issues according to Trump voters:

41.4%: Jobs and the economy.
19.9%: Border and immigration.
7.9%: Inflation.
3%: Foreign policy.

Here are the most important issues according to Harris voters:

22.9%: Abortion.
16.5%: against Trump.
9.2%: Jobs and the economy.
8.5%: Defending democracy.
6.3%: Candidate morality.
4.2%: Inflation.
3.9%: Taxes and government spending.

Huge gender gap

The gender gap between voters is even more pronounced than in the early October poll.

Harris leads among women by 24.4% – 58.3% – 33.9%. At the beginning of October, her advantage among women was 13.2%.

Trump leads men by 19.9% - 54.7%-33.8%. At the beginning of October, his advantage among men was 9.5%.

Harris receives 34.8% of the male vote, while Trump receives 33.9% of the female vote. Kennedy receives 4.4% of the female vote and 2.9% of the male vote.

The poll found that 2024 represents the most gender-divided election of our lifetime, with “deep and stark” differences between men and women.

College voters

College voters voted the same way at the end of October as they did at the beginning of the month.

Harris leads among college voters by 14.8% – 51.2%-36.4%. Trump leads among non-college student voters by 6.1% to 49.2% to 43.1%.

The difference is even more pronounced when divided by high school diploma. Trump leads by 24.2% (58.4%-34.2%) among voters whose highest level of education is a high school diploma.

Harris leads by 7.3% (49.3-42%) among voters with some post-secondary education.

LIVE: Town Hall Elections

On Tuesday, October 29, 2024 at 12:30 p.m., we are hosting a town hall discussion to discuss Michigan’s importance to the presidential race and discuss other key races across the state, such as the Senate and House races.

You can Watch this entire conversation live by clicking here or using the Local 4+ application.

Survey methodology

This poll was commissioned by WDIV Local 4 News and the Detroit News. Glengariff Group, Inc. conducted a statewide survey of likely general election voters.

Between 22 and 24 October 2024, 600 people were interviewed by telephone. This poll has a margin of error of +/- 4% at a 95% confidence level.

83.2% of respondents were contacted by mobile phone and 16.8% by landline phone.