Tropical Storm Patty, hurricane? Possible consequences in Florida, time

Caribbean system shows potential for development

The system could die in Mexico or the Yucatan.
A track that will take it from the US to the Atlantic is also possible.
A northern path could mean impacts from Florida to the Carolinas.
The westerly path could hit South Florida.

Sit down. Shutters. Inventories. Evacuate… or not. State of emergency. Warnings Watch. Panic.

Hurricane. Tropical storm.

We hoped these were the last words of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. After all, it’s almost November and there’s just over a month left until the season officially ends.

Right?

Wrong. May be.

➤ Track all active storms

➤ Weather alerts via text messages: Sign up to receive updates on current storms and weather events based on location.

The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring a broad area of low pressure in the Caribbean that could develop into a tropical depression later this week or into the weekend.

AccuWeather forecasters are giving it a strong chance of developing, saying it could strengthen into a tropical depression or tropical storm next week.

“If all the pieces come together, it could even become a hurricane,” Alex DaSilva, a leading hurricane expert, told AccuWeather in a telephone interview Monday morning.

NHC: 40 percent chance of system development in Caribbean countries

A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean in a few days, according to the latest data from the National Hurricane Center.

➤ Tropics Clock, October 28: National Hurricane Center Caribbean Tracking System. Will this become Tropical Storm Patty?

After that, gradual development is possible and a tropical depression could form later this week or into the weekend as the system begins to drift north or northeast over the southwestern and central Caribbean Sea.

Chance of formation after 48 hours: low, about 0 percent.
Chance of formation after 7 days: average, 40 percent.

Is a hurricane heading for Florida?

No, there is no hurricane heading towards Florida right now, but this is one of several possible scenarios.

There is a high risk of the system developing tropically in the western Caribbean, DaSilva said.

Typically November tropical systems that develop in the western Caribbean move north or northeast, but a large area of high pressure over the US can affect where they may move, and that path varies from moving into Mexico to being blown out into the open Atlantic and away from the USA

But several scenarios include impacts on Florida or even the Carolinas.

Could Florida (USA) see Tropical Storm Patty or even a hurricane in November? Scenarios:

According to DaSilva, there are two different possible paths for the development of the system in the Caribbean. Very early forecasts place the timing of both scenarios between November 7 and November 10, but impact locations and strength vary greatly and will be determined by several factors, including the location of the high pressure system and interaction with mountains.

West track:

Timing: November 7–10
Where: The location of this high pressure system will determine where a potential tropical system could go. If the high pressure system is stronger across the US, the developing tropical system could begin moving west sooner into Mexico, where it could die. He could also move to the Yucatan Peninsula and die there.
- But there is also a possibility that it could move towards Florida, especially South Florida. “The chances of reaching the Big Bend in Florida are slim, but not zero. South Florida has a better chance. Alabama, Texas, Louisiana, we don’t think it’s going in that direction,” DaSilva said.
How strong: But if that high-pressure system moves off the US east coast, the tropical system could snag on the US and it “could absolutely become a hurricane.” In this scenario, he will have more time in the Caribbean over warm water.
- “If it heads toward Florida, it could bring a stronger storm to the state. The likelihood of it becoming a major hurricane—Category 3 or higher—is low, but we can’t rule it out due to low wind shear and warm waters.” It’s difficult to pinpoint that moment at the moment, but the potential is there,” DaSilva said.
Impact: Possible impacts in South Florida include heavy rainfall, coastal flooding, winds blowing onto a very vulnerable coastline.

Northern route:

Timing: November 7–10
Where: Historically, systems cross Cuba and Hispaniola and then go out to sea. But a high-pressure system could push the tropical system westward, sending it into Florida or even the Carolinas, DaSilva said.
How much? “We could very well see a hurricane. Conditions in the Caribbean are ideal for amplification. If all the pieces come together, it could become a hurricane in the Caribbean. It wouldn’t surprise me. After interacting with Cuba and Hispaniola, this could become a hurricane. will weaken, but may strengthen again once it hits the Bahamas.”
- This path could produce a tropical storm or weak hurricane in the southeastern United States.
Impact: Impacts will include strong winds and rain from Florida to the Carolinas.

November hurricanes? Florida has suffered 3 hits in the past.

Since 1851, three hurricanes have struck Florida in November. In Florida we got:

Hurricane Nicole
- Landfall location: November 10, 2022, near Vero Beach.
- Strength: 75 mph
Hurricane Kate:
- Place of landfall: November 21, 1985, Mexico Beach.
- Strength: 100 mph
1935 “Yankee” hurricane
- Landfall: November 4, 1935, Miami.
- Strength: 100 mph

Why are November hurricanes unlikely?

“November is not known for its tropical activity,” said Dan Kottlowski, AccuWeather’s chief hurricane expert.

“The only opportunity for tropical development is in the southern Gulf of Mexico and over the Caribbean Sea. Even there, strong vertical wind shear can hamper tropical formation.”

Warm water is one of the factors that promotes the development of incipient tropical systems. This makes November hurricanes historically rare. This is changing.

“Since 1995, sea surface temperatures have averaged above normal throughout the Atlantic Basin until November, and the central Atlantic was no exception,” Kottlowski said.

Although rare, hurricanes do occur in November. This is where they come from

Between 1851 and 2020, 50 hurricanes formed in November, according to NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory.

Countdown: How many days left until the end of Atlantic hurricane season?

What’s next?

We will continue to update our tropical weather information daily. Download your local site’s app to stay connected to the news. Find our special subscription offers here.