what voters really wanted and why the coalition’s mandate may be fragile

Since winning the 2023 election, the National-led Coalition government has quickly embarked on a wide range of policy changes, often reversing the policies of its Labor Party predecessor.

A year later, despite ongoing economic problems, the government’s three parties still lead in opinion polls – although sometimes only narrowly.

Continued support for the National-Act-NZ First coalition suggests voters believe it is delivering on its mandate – the promises and results people had in mind when they voted for coalition parties. This begs the question: What exactly did people want when they voted in 2023?

Research into New Zealand elections helps us understand why people voted the way they did. After the election, the study surveyed a random sample of people registered to vote and received just under 2,000 responses. We use this data to try to understand the new government’s mandate.

Economy and cost of living dominate

When asked to choose who they would prefer to lead the next government, some 48% would prefer a coalition led by a national leader, compared with 38% who would prefer to lead the Labor Party.

Nearly half of all voters wanted a new government after the election, suggesting it was a “swing” election.

The issues that mattered to voters provide insight into why voters wanted change in 2023. The Election Study asks people what issue was most important to them when they voted.

The word cloud (see below) of the most important questions shows that two answers stand out: the economy and the cost of living.

However, unlike 2020, which was dominated by COVID, in 2023 people were concerned about a range of issues, including health, climate change, law and order: 73% wanted tougher sentencing laws. Thus, National’s strong stance on law and order was also part of its mandate.

Moreover, there are clear differences between the two related issues of economics and cost of living.

Voters who said the “economy” was the most important issue to them tended to think the National Party was best equipped to deal with the issue. Voters who answered “cost of living” (and other related terms such as poverty) were more likely to say that Labor would be the best party to deal with these issues.

Some good news for the Labor Party

Although economic problems were at the forefront of many people’s minds and people wanted change, satisfaction levels with the previous government were still surprisingly high.

Some 54% said the Labor government had done a “very” or “fairly” good job – strongly supporting the government that was ousted at the election. And 64% of respondents also continued to approve of the previous government’s response to COVID, suggesting Labor continues to get credit for its management of the pandemic.

Thus, the previous Labor government was not widely seen as incompetent, as National and its partners may have hoped.

Indeed, Labor’s Chris Hipkins was liked slightly more on average by voters than National’s Christopher Luxon (5.3 to 4.7 out of 10). Hipkins was generally considered a slightly more competent leader than Luxon.

However, Bill Clinton’s infamous 1992 US presidential campaign slogan was “It’s the economy, fool!” – took center stage in the 2023 elections.

Nearly 75% of people thought the economy had gotten worse in the year before the election, and two-thirds of voters thought the economy or inflation influenced their voting decisions.

People were clearly concerned about the state of the economy and the level of inflation. Economic assessments mattered more than memories of the COVID crisis, the sympathy or perceived competence of party leaders, or long-term views of parties.

Fragile mandate

In the year since the election, inflation has fallen, as in other countries. But unemployment has risen, the economy has entered recession and a recent 1News Verian poll found more voters believe New Zealand is worse off than better off after the election.

However, the coalition government remains ahead in opinion polls, despite criticism of many of its measures. Election research can also shed light on where some of the criticisms of the government come from.

Only 30% of New Zealanders wanted the interest deductibility restored for landlords, while 46% wanted landlords to pay tax on that income.

Half of voters wanted tougher measures to cut carbon emissions, while only 23% did not want them. Voters also wanted increased spending on health care and education.

Our results suggest that a national-led coalition government has a mandate from voters to reduce inflation and manage the economy toward growth and higher living standards.

Voters also want to see a reduction in crime and improvements in government services, especially health care.

If the coalition fails to meet these challenging expectations, National and its partners are likely to feel the wrath of voters at the next New Zealand election – especially as people have maintained relatively favorable views of the outgoing Labor government.