Voters concerned about post-election violence and attempts to overturn results

American voters are approaching the presidential election with deep concerns about what might follow, including the possibility of political violence, attempts to overturn the election results and the broader implications for democracy, according to a new poll.

The results of a poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research highlight lingering concerns about the fragility of the world’s oldest democracy, nearly four years after former President Donald Trump’s refusal to accept the results of the 2020 election galvanized a mob. his supporters storm the US Capitol in a violent attempt to stop the peaceful transfer of power.

About 4 in 10 registered voters say they are “extremely” or “very” concerned about violent attempts to overturn the results of the November election. A similar proportion are concerned about legal efforts to do so. And about one in three voters say they are “extremely” or “very” concerned about attempts by local or state election officials to interfere with the final tally of results.

Relatively few voters—about a third or less—are “not very” or “not at all concerned” about what’s happening.

Trump continues to lie about the fraud that cost him re-election four years ago and again predicts that he can only lose this time if the election is rigged against him. It’s a strategy he’s employed since his first run for office. His allies and the Republican National Committee, which he reorganized, have filed lawsuits across the country, a potential prelude to post-election litigation if he loses.

“I thought that after January 6, 2021, the Republican Party would have the good sense to reject him as a candidate,” Aostar Kaye of Downey, California, said of Trump. “And because they didn’t, I think it just emboldened him to think that he could do anything and they’d still be with him.”

Many voters believe Trump won’t concede if he loses

Trump’s wide-ranging efforts to override the will of voters and stay in power after his 2020 defeat have led to fears he will not concede again if he loses to Vice President Kamala Harris.

Nearly 9 in 10 voters said the loser of the presidential election must concede once each state completes its vote count and legal challenges are resolved, including about 8 in 10 Republicans. But only about a third of voters expect Trump to accept the results and concede if he loses.

Democrats and Republicans have starkly different views on the issue: About two-thirds of Republican voters think Trump will concede, compared with about 1 in 10 Democrats.

This does not apply to Harris. Nearly 8 in 10 voters said Harris would accept the results and concede if she lost the election, including a solid majority of Republican voters.

Democrats and Republicans are divided over who will weaken democracy

Members of both parties have grave concerns about how American democracy might evolve based on the results of the November election.

Overall, about half of voters think Trump would weaken U.S. democracy “a lot” or “somewhat” if he wins, while about 4 in 10 said the same about Harris.

Not surprisingly, Americans were deeply divided along ideological lines. Roughly 8 in 10 Republicans said Trump’s new term would strengthen democracy “a lot” or “somewhat,” while a similar share of Democrats said the same about Harris’ presidency.

About 9 in 10 voters from each party said the opposition party’s candidate would likely weaken democracy at least “somewhat” if elected.

Kaye, a retired health care worker, called Trump an “existential threat to the Constitution.” One prospect she said frightens her is that if Trump wins, his new administration likely won’t have the same barriers that were in place in the previous administration.

Republican voter Debra Apodaca, 60, of Tucson, Arizona, said Harris is the biggest threat to democracy. She said President Joe Biden’s administration is placing too much emphasis on foreign aid and showing a lack of concern for its own people.

“We just send our tax dollars around. It won’t stay here. Why don’t we care about America?” she said. “Why should we pay taxes if we just send them?”

That lack of concern also extends to the border, she said, adding that a Harris victory would be “the end of the Border Patrol.”

The attack on the Capitol on January 6 became a dividing line.

Part of what divides voters’ views of American democracy is the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol and the question of who is to blame. Democrats and independents are much more likely than Republican voters to place “a lot” or “quite a bit” of responsibility on Trump.

Susan Ode, an independent voter from Chicago and a retiree from the financial sector, said she is concerned that “crazy people will buy into the misinformation they are given,” leading to another such attack.

Giovanna Elizabeth Minardi of Yucaipa, California, said other issues are more important in this year’s election. She said her biggest concern is the economy and believes high prices, especially in her home state, are driving away businesses and creating dependence on the government. It’s a dependency Harris wants to preserve, said Minardi, an advocate for children and family services.

Opinions about the Jan. 6 attack aren’t the only ones that split voters along ideological lines. Following Trump’s lead, most Republicans argue that Biden was not legitimately elected. Nearly all Democrats and about 7 in 10 independents believe Biden was legitimately elected.

Other aspects of the political system are also controversial.

This year’s presidential campaign has highlighted one aspect of the American political system that some consider undemocratic – the use of the Electoral College to elect the president rather than the popular vote. Trump and Harris have focused their campaign campaigns and advertising in seven hot states, home to just 18% of the country’s population.

About half of voters believe the possibility that a candidate could become president by winning the Electoral College but losing the popular vote is a “major issue” in US elections. As with many issues, the issue also exposes a partisan divide: About two-thirds of Democrats say the possibility of a split Electoral College vote is a major concern, compared with about one-third of Republicans.

Debra Christensen, 54, a home health nurse and Democrat from Watertown, Wis., opposes the Electoral College, which could give Trump the White House even if he loses the popular vote for a third time.

“In this day and age of technology, why can’t we have one person and one voice?” – she said.

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The survey of 1,072 adults was conducted October 11-14, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The sampling margin of error for registered voters is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

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