How infrequent voters can decide the outcome of an election: From the Politics Department

It’s all part of a recent realignment in American politics, with Democrats now outperforming in low-turnout elections and Republicans – at least on paper – doing better when turnout is higher.

Trump’s challenge is to turn that polling support into votes.

Our combined poll found that parts of the electorate that did not participate in either 2020 or 2022 are less interested in the upcoming elections than voters who voted in at least one of the past two elections, raising doubts about whether they will show its effectiveness. in 2024.

On the other hand, NBC News recently observed a pair of focus groups of voters who didn’t vote in the 2020 election but plan to do so this time. They revealed the understandable reasons why they didn’t vote four years ago: work, family, Covid, failure to meet voter registration deadlines all got in the way.

These 2020 voters also revealed why many—though not all—of them support Trump over Harris: They believe life was better when Trump was president than it is now.

“Prosperous,” “robust,” “normal” and “hopeful” were some of their responses when asked what life was like when Trump was in the White House.

Now? Their responses included “difficult,” “struggling,” “deteriorating,” and “anxious.”

Focus groups have found that these are the voters who are leaning toward Trump. The billion-dollar question looming over this election: Will they—like the millions of other voters who sat out 2020—end up voting and casting ballots for Trump?

Checking the game status in the “blue wall”

As readers of this newsletter are well aware, the blue wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are poised to play critical roles in determining the outcome of the presidential race. With Election Day just over a week away, here’s a look at some of the key dynamics shaping the state of play there:

🧤Michigan: Alex Seitz-Wald and Henry J. Gomez write that Kamala Harris is hoping gains in Michigan’s suburbs will offset losses among parts of the Democratic base, including Arab Americans, black men and young voters, in places like Dearborn and Detroit. Read more →

Later in the ballot, Henry also examines how Republicans are promoting a message based on civility and “relentless affirmative action” – rather than Donald Trump – as they seek to regain control of the Michigan House of Representatives. Read more →

🔑 Pennsylvania: Peter Nicholas sums up the Harris campaign’s massive door-knocking operation in suburban Philadelphia. Interviews with two dozen campaign aides, Democratic strategists, volunteers and elected officials suggest Harris’ hopes in Pennsylvania depend on a ground operation they see dwarfing anything Trump has orchestrated. Read more →

🦡 Wisconsin: Matt Dixon reports that the Harris campaign is gaining Republican support in Wisconsin, a central part of its efforts to reach voters around the world who are skeptical of Trump. Read more →

This is all the policy department has provided for now. If you have any feedback – like it or not – write to us at [email protected]

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