College Football Week 10 Odds and Picks: Ohio State vs. Penn State: Top Early Betting Odds

I know it’s always been at the bottom of the college football barrel, but UConn is actually good this season. This is because of his protection.

The Huskies rank sixth in the entire country in EPA/Play and allow just 4.7 yards per play. In fact, over the last three games, they are one of only three teams allowing less than four yards per game.

This is an elite team that can handle both the run and pass, ranking in the top 15 in success rate allowed in both the rush and pass.

This game in particular will test the secondary. Georgia State throws the ball on 57% of its offensive plays, but both quarterbacks struggle at times.

Head coach Dell McGee traded Christian Veilleux for Zach Gibson for the last two games, but he hasn’t gotten much better.

He posted a PFF passing grade below 70 against Marshall and Appalachian State, and whenever he’s under pressure his effectiveness drops significantly.

In addition, the wind will blow at 10 miles per hour, which will affect the progress of the game.

Georgia State also cannot run the ball effectively at all, ranking outside the top 100 in all rushing metrics. Meanwhile, UC is top 15 in manpower and EPA/Rush allowed, so I don’t see Georgia State moving the ball effectively in this game.

On the other hand, UCLA uses a trio of running backs, but Darell Robinson has been the most effective.

He averages over seven yards per attempt because he is incredibly difficult to bring down on first contact. In fact, he averages 4.8 yards per carry after his first touch and has a PFF rushing grade of 89.2, which puts him in the top 10 in college football.

He also has an outstanding offensive line that boasts the second-best PFF run blocking grade in the country.

Georgia State ranks 111th in defensive line yards allowed and 112th in EPA/Rush yards allowed, so the Huskies should be able to run the ball at will.

All three projection models project the Huskies well north of their landing point, which is why I like their -6.5 value.

Pick: UConn -6.5 (FanDuel)