Who will win the 2024 elections?

The countdown to Election Day begins as the presidential race will be decided on the evening of Tuesday, November 5, 2024. Despite polls and pundits predicting a close race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, top online bookmakers have listed the clear favorite on Election Day 2024.

Scroll down to see who is most likely to win the 2024 election, based on polls and betting odds.

Election 2024: Who’s in the lead, Trump or Harris?

According to FiveThirtyEight, Kamala Harris is leading in the polls as of November 1st. Harris leads by a small margin at 47.9%, with former President Donald Trump trailing behind with 46.8%.

Wall Street reacted cautiously to changes in public opinion polls, with market volatility rising as investors try to gauge potential policy changes under any administration. The VIX index, often referred to as the market’s “fear gauge,” has risen 30% over the past month.

On the other hand, betting markets tell a different story. The odds show Trump with a comfortable lead, but his overall lead depends on where you look.

Chances for the presidential election: who will win the election?

According to BetOnline, Trump has -175 odds to win the 2024 presidential election, suggesting a 63.6% chance of coming out on top on Election Day. On the other hand, Harris has a +150 odds of winning, giving her about a 40% chance of winning the 2024 election.

Meanwhile, in Kalshi, bids for Harris have started pouring in over the past two days. As of October 29, 64% of bets were on Trump winning the election, but as of November 2, that number had fallen to 53%. During the same period, Harris stopped receiving 36% of bets. to 46%, an increase of almost 28% during this period.

How to bet on the 2024 election

Click here to create an account with BetOnline
Register using your accurate account details.
Get up to $1,000 in free bets on the 2024 election.
Bet on Trump or Harris winning the election.

Best Sites to Bet on the 2024 Elections

Full disclosure: Our betting experts have carefully researched and selected each product based on their direct experience. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

Betting odds on Trump and Harris at the best bookmakers

Despite trailing in the polls, election betting sites still tip Trump to win over Harris in the upcoming 2024 presidential election. At top online sportsbooks like BetOnline, Bovada and EveryGame, Trump has odds of -175 to win, while Harris has odds of +140 or worse to win.

The likelihood of Trump’s victory began to decline over the course of two weeks as Harris’ ratings began to decline in battleground states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada. Seven battleground states account for 93 of the 538 electoral votes.

Check out the latest odds from leading election betting sites below.

Note: All odds are correct as of November 2, 2024.

2024 Election Betting Map: State-by-State Odds Guide

Want to know how each state’s election betting odds affect the outcome? Here’s a map of the elections by state according to betting odds.

Who will win the 2024 election, Trump or Harris?

In each of the last two elections, betting odds have been more accurate than the polls in predicting the winner. However, Harris has made a sharp surge in the final weeks leading up to Election Day, which could make this race more interesting than current betting odds may suggest.

Kalshi election betting odds continue to trend in favor of the Democratic Party heading into the final days of voting. But even as polling among leading publications has tightened, Trump has not lost his lead in the betting markets. Expect that to change in the final days before the election as bettors take advantage of the opportunity to take longer odds on Harris as the surprise underdog in the race.

With Election Day just around the corner, expect this presidential race to go all the way, giving new meaning to the idea that every vote matters.