What happens to Donald Trump’s criminal cases if he wins or loses the election?

Former President Donald Trump has a huge vested interest in the upcoming election, which could send him either back to the White House or to a courtroom for perhaps years of litigation under the looming threat of prison time.

No other presidential candidate in history has faced the possibility of such radically different results, in which Trump’s legacy, personal fortune and personal freedom could be decided by a few thousand swing-state voters.

If he returns to the White House, Trump has promised to fire Jack Smith, the special counsel who brought two federal cases against him, “within two seconds”; he said he would punish the prosecutors and judges overseeing his cases; and he will likely avoid serious consequences for any of the criminal charges he continues to face.

“If he wins, say goodbye to all criminal cases,” said Karen Friedman Agnifilo, who formerly served as chief of the Manhattan district attorney’s trial division.

“The criminal cases have been dismissed, legally or practically,” added Friedman Agnifilo, who said a Trump victory would be a “get out of jail free card” for the former president.

If he loses the election, Trump faces years of litigation, hundreds of millions in civil fines and the possibility of prison time, starting with his sentencing in his criminal case in New York on November 26.

Here’s what could happen in each of Trump’s criminal cases.

New York Secret Money Case

Trump’s most pressing legal challenge since the election is his Nov. 26 conviction on 34 counts of falsifying business records to conceal a 2016 hush money payment to adult film actress Stormy Daniels.

Defense lawyers were able to successfully delay the verdict twice: first by asking for the case to be dismissed on the grounds of presidential immunity, and the second time by emphasizing the political significance of the election verdict. Describing Trump’s case as one that “stands apart, in a unique place in the history of this country,” New York Judge Juan Merchan decided to delay sentencing until November to ensure that the jury’s verdict “will be respected and dealt with in a manner that is not diluted.” the scale of the upcoming presidential elections.”

While first-time people convicted of falsifying business records generally avoid prison time, legal experts told ABC News that unique factors in Trump’s case, including the fact that he has been prosecuted for criminal contempt 10 times, and the finding that he falsified business records to influence the election – – could push Judge Merchan to prison. When ABC News polled 14 legal experts about Trump’s sentencing in June, five thought a prison sentence was likely, two called it a toss-up and seven thought prison was unlikely.

Sentencing could still come in November if Trump wins the election, although new circumstances could influence Judge Merchan’s decision, according to Boston College law professor Jeffrey Cohen. Merchan could opt for a more lenient sentence – such as a day of probation – or defer the sentence until Trump leaves office.

“A sitting president would not be forced to go to prison while he serves his presidential term, and so could theoretically serve it out once he leaves office,” Cohen said, noting that delaying his sentence could encourage Trump to remain in office. for as long as possible.

“If he wins, I think realistically there won’t be any meaningful verdict because of it,” Friedman told Agnifilo.

Trump’s lawyers may also seek to delay sentencing in light of the election results, and the former president still has a backlog of legal efforts to delay the case. On November 12, Judge Merchan plans to rule on Trump’s motion to dismiss the case due to a recent Supreme Court ruling granting him immunity from prosecution for official actions taken as president—and if Merchan denies that motion, Trump could seek an immediate appeal. to try to delay sentencing.

Trump also asked the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals to transfer the state case to federal court, which his lawyers could use to delay sentencing. Unlike federal cases in which Trump could theoretically pardon himself, the state case would likely remain outside the scope of a presidential pardon even if Trump successfully moves the case to federal court, according to Cohen.

Federal election interference case

Amid the presidential race, U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan is weighing how to proceed with Trump’s federal election subversion case in light of the Supreme Court’s immunity ruling, which delayed the case for nearly a year. Fifteen months after Trump pleaded not guilty to charges of carrying out a “criminal scheme” to overturn the results of the 2020 election, Judge Chutkan has set a timetable for the case beyond the election, with key filing deadlines set for the end of December. 19.

Trump has vowed to fire Smith if he is re-elected, but that may not be necessary because longstanding Justice Department policy prohibits prosecution of a sitting president, meaning federal cases against Trump could be immediately dismissed if Trump takes office.

While Smith may try to continue the prosecution during the two months between the election and the inauguration, there is little he can do to reopen the case, said Pace University law professor Bennett Gershman.

“They can keep doing what they’re doing, but it won’t make much difference if Trump can end up appointing an attorney general who will then make a motion to drop the charges,” Gershman said. .

While his federal case will inevitably disappear if Trump wins, the exact manner in which that will happen is unknown. Smith could seek to release a final report of his findings, Trump could face a standoff with Congress or the acting attorney general over Smith’s firing, and Judge Chutkan could oppose a possible Justice Department decision to dismiss the charges.

If Trump loses the election, Judge Chutkan is expected to continue assessing whether any charges in the case are protected by presidential immunity. Experts say her final decision will likely be appealed and could return to the Supreme Court, which would likely delay the trial for at least another year.

The Case of Federal Secret Documents

After U.S. District Judge Eileen Cannon dismissed Trump’s criminal case for possessing classified documents and obstructing the government’s efforts to recover them, Smith asked the appeals court to reinstate the case, arguing that Cannon’s decision to appoint and fund special counsel could “jeopardize the Department’s longstanding practices.” Justice and call hundreds of executive branch appointments into question.”

If Trump wins the election, Friedman Agnifilo said, prosecutors would likely have no choice but to withdraw the appeal, thereby cementing Judge Cannon’s decision to dismiss the case.

If Trump loses the election, the case will have a long way to go before it reaches trial. Prosecutors need to successfully convince the 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Atlanta to overturn Cannon’s firing, and Trump’s team has already raised defenses based on presidential immunity that could form the basis of a future appeal.

Facing a series of unfavorable decisions, Smith also faces a key decision about whether to ask Judge Cannon to remove him from the case, Cohen said.

“I’m not sure what their reasons are now, other than ‘we don’t really like what she decided,'” said Cohen, who was skeptical of the government’s grounds for recusal based solely on court records.

In a separate case overseen by Judge Cannon, defense attorneys for Ryan Routh—the man accused of trying to assassinate Trump at his Florida golf course in September—moved to remove Cannon, citing in part an ABC News report that personnel were disseminating information. about the Trump transition, Cannon’s name was included among potential candidates for attorney general if Trump is re-elected. Cannon rejected the proposal Tuesday, calling arguments about a potential appointment “rumor” and “hints.”

“We had a brave, brilliant judge in Florida. She’s a brilliant judge, by the way. I don’t know her. I never talked to her. I never talked to her. But we had a brave and very brilliant judge,” Trump. said about Cannon last week.

Fulton County Election Interference Case

Trump’s criminal case in Fulton County, Georgia, related to his attempt to overturn the state’s 2020 election results has been on hold since June while an appeals court considers the former president’s challenge to Judge Scott McAfee’s decision not to disqualify District Attorney Fani. Willis for what McAfee called “a significant act of indecency” that arose from a romantic relationship between Willis and a prosecutor on her staff. The Georgia Court of Appeals has set oral arguments for Dec. 6 on whether Willis can continue his case.

Asked about the future of the case if Trump wins the election, Trump lawyer Steve Sadow told Judge McAfee last December that the trial would likely have to be delayed until Trump completes his term as president.

Since August 2023, when Trump was indicted in Fulton County on 13 counts, Judge McAfee reduced the indictment, throwing out the five counts Trump was originally charged with.

If he loses the election, Trump could try to stall the case by continuing to push for Willis’s disqualification or establishing presidential immunity protections.

“The indictment in this case charges President Trump with acts that are fundamental to his official duties as President,” Trump’s lawyers wrote in a January motion.