Whether Trump or Harris win, American prosperity will rise: survey

With just over a week left until the US presidential election, sentiment may be mixed. But there is at least some good news, no matter who you support.

Americans’ wealth could increase if Donald Trump or Kamala Harris win the election, Bloomberg reported on Monday. These are the findings of the Markets Live Pulse survey, which was conducted from October 21 to 25 among Bloomberg News terminals and online readers around the world. The panel of 350 respondents included economists, portfolio managers and retail investors.

Overall, survey respondents believe Trump would be better for investors in stocks, bitcoin or gold, Bloomberg noted. Under a Trump presidency, 38 percent believe stock market growth will accelerate, compared with just 13 percent who think the same under a Harris presidency. However, half of investors believe the market will maintain its momentum or accelerate under Harris’ leadership, while 59 percent believe the same with Trump in charge.

If Trump were to win, respondents also believe Bitcoin would fare better, rising to $80,000 by the end of the year, Bloomberg writes. (It’s currently at $67,000.) If Harris comes out on top, they think Bitcoin will fall slightly to $65,000. It’s a similar story for gold: 57 percent of survey respondents believe the price of gold will rise under the Trump administration. Only 45 percent feel the same about the Harris administration.

Under Harris’ leadership, however, homebuyers may see a bit of a break. Respondents believe mortgage rates will fall more significantly with a Democrat in the Oval Office. Currently, the average rate on a 30-year fixed loan is 6.54 percent, according to Freddie Mac data cited by Bloomberg. The average estimate for the same indicator at the end of Harris’s presidency among survey respondents was 5.5 percent. At the end of Trump’s presidency, the rate was 5.9 percent.

Of course, this is all speculative, and analysts say elections typically only have a short-term impact on markets. “Market performance has more to do with economic performance and earnings forecasts than who sits in the White House,” Megan Horneman, chief investment officer at Verdence Capital Advisors, told Bloomberg.

However, the economy is an important reason why people vote one way or another. And in just a few days, we should find out who will be in charge of the American markets in the near future.