Juan Soto’s reprieve, Bregman’s Astros disadvantage, Counsell’s familiar move

Now that the champagne has been poured and the parade has taken place, it’s time to turn our attention from the postseason to Hot Stove season. And what a winter it promises to be, with Juan Soto highlighting a stellar free agent class and plenty of teams with money to spend. Here’s a quick spin through the rumor mill, with all the latest news on Soto’s potential contract structure, the Houston Astros’ pursuit of Alex Bregman and Craig Counsell passing the Milwaukee Brewers once again.

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Where Juan Soto will sign is the biggest question this offseason as the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies and more seek to secure the outfielder’s services. But what might Soto’s future contract look like?

Recent reports suggest that Soto and his agent Scott Boras are now targeting at least the $700 million deal given to Shohei Ohtani last winter. Of course, this deal was made possible by a whopping $680 million in set-aside money, which dramatically reduced the actual value of the contract. Boras is unlikely to agree to such a team-friendly structure, but if he wants to take his client into Ohtani’s stratosphere, he’ll have to at least compromise on something: a recent Spotrac estimate suggests Soto could match Ohtani’s career earnings with The 12-year deal is worth $660 million, of which about $215 million will be deferred.

It is clear at this point that the original $500-600 million estimate made earlier this season has fallen short. But Ohtani’s deal was something of a black swan, and the best bet at the moment seems to be somewhere between $600 million and $700 million.

The Houston Astros face something of a Catch-22 this offseason. The team’s most obvious path to contention in 2025 is to bring back pending free agent Alex Bregman, especially given the dearth of other third base options on the market this winter. But the only way Bregman can re-sign is if he feels Houston will struggle next year and beyond.

“That’s what I want to do throughout my career, is win,” Bregman told The Athletic in September. “That’s what I value most, winning.”

Can the Astros successfully convince Bregman that Houston is the place to do it? This offseason is a turning point, with both Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez entering their final seasons of team control. The team still hopes to sign one or both to long-term contracts, but owner Jim Crane has been reluctant to make similar deals in the past. And while trading Tucker and/or Valdez would be a boon for what is generally considered one of the worst farm systems in baseball, it would inevitably mean a step back in the short term that Bregman almost certainly doesn’t want to take.

After being traded to the Chicago Cubs last October, Craig Counsell found himself a little behind the eight, unable to assemble his ideal coaching staff considering how late in the cycle he already was. This offseason represents an opportunity for a reset, so perhaps it’s no surprise that Counsell is going back to basics: The former Brewers captain convinced Milwaukee first base coach Quintin Berry to move to the North Side, where he will serve as the third baseman. basic trainer.

Berry also served as the Brewers’ running backs coach, helping develop the arrogant, aggressive style that has characterized Milwaukee the last couple of years. He hopes to have a similar effect on a relatively hard-working Cubs team last season. It also represents another shot in the growing cold war between these two franchises as Counsell looks to prove he was justified in sticking Milwaukee to an NL Central rival.