Analysis: Polls show one-third of Ohio GOP voters will vote for Question 1

The Ohio Republican Party and the state’s elections director have done everything in their power to convey false information to voters about Question 1, the Citizens Not Politicians voting issue.

An October poll from Bowling Green State University shows Ohio voters are likely not buying what they are selling.

And this applies to Republican voters too.

The BGSU/YouGov poll, conducted online among 1,000 likely Ohio voters from Oct. 12 to Oct. 21, shows 56% support the first option, 32% are opposed and 12% are unsure.

But the most mind-blowing thing was that the poll asked this question of Republican voters – 27%, almost one in three, said they supported the first option.

Democrats strongly support the Citizens Not Politicians voting issue. A majority of independent candidates (49%) support the issue, 29% oppose it, and 22% are undecided.

But when they saw this poll, they must have given a damn about GOP headquarters in Ohio.

RELATED: What is Ohio, Issue 1? Deep Dive into the State’s Redistricting Amendment on the Ballot

If they can’t convince one third of their electorate that the Citizens Not Politicians initiative is a bad idea, how are they going to sell it to independent and undecided voters?

“The partisan divide on the first issue is striking,” said BGSU professor Melissa Miller, director of the poll, in a footnote accompanying the poll results. “Supporters of this measure are no doubt hoping that Democrats will turn out in large numbers and a majority of independent candidates will switch in their favor.”

This is the Democrats’ best hope and the Ohio Republican Party’s worst nightmare.

Why does the Ohio GOP hate this ballot issue so much?

Quite simply: because it would break their control over the process of drawing state legislative and congressional district maps.

It would replace a system in which redistricting in Ohio is entirely controlled by Republican politicians and replace it with a citizen-based system.

The first issue would create a 15-member citizen commission consisting of five Democrats, five Republicans and five independents — all selected by a bipartisan panel of retired judges.

The only requirement for membership on this commission is that you must not be a current or former elected official, political party official, or lobbyist.

It would break the heart of the Ohio Republican Party. This is the key to their one-party control of the state.

Imagine if they had to compete on a more level playing field for state legislative and congressional seats…

Will Republicans lose control of the Ohio House and Senate?

ANALYSIS: Joe Deters finds the support for the first issue “humorous.” Democrats don’t laugh

No, it’s unlikely. But what they stand to lose is a veto-proof majority in both houses—the only thing that gives them the power to do whatever they want, whenever they want to do it.

Passage of the first issue would likely mean Republicans in the state legislature may have to reach across the aisle to gain Democratic votes to advance their agenda.

But these days, “compromise” seems like a dirty word among Republican politicians at all levels.

So it’s no surprise that the Ohio Republican Party is pushing a message that tries to convince Ohioans that they should leave that power in the hands of Republican elected officials.

“Issue 1 is a power grab,” Ohio Republican Party Chairman Alex Triantafilou said in one social media post. “Issue 1 addresses gerrymandering and makes it law in Ohio.

“This issue is fueled by special interests outside the state to permanently enshrine gerrymandering in our constitution,” Triantafilou said. “A misleading attempt to confuse voters.”

While we’re on the subject of “misleading attempts,” we should note that Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose, who talks well about “election integrity,” succeeded with a 3-2 majority on the Ohio Board of Elections when it came time to approve the language voting on issue 1.

Proponents of the first option asked the Ohio Supreme Court to overturn LaRose’s rewrite of the ballot language.

But the court’s four-member Republican majority refused to do so beyond making a few minor amendments.

So, with the help of his friends on the Ohio Supreme Court, LaRose managed to change the simple ballot language submitted by Citizens Not Politicians, and Republican Attorney General Dave Yost signed on to the proposal.

RELATED: Ohio Supreme Court allows much of election board language to change on Question 1.

The new language Ohioans are voting on now and on November 5 makes it seem like Question 1 will require partisan gerrymandering, when the whole point of Question 1 is eliminate partisan fraud.

Citizens Not Politicians and two Democrats on the ballot said it was a deliberate act designed to confuse voters.

And apparently LaRose and his GOP cronies on the ballot board are hoping that voters, tired of blacking out countless boxes of racial candidates and local issues, will be exhausted when they get to the bottom of their ballots and see that huge block of “Issue” text. . 1.

Don’t count on it, say the citizens, not the politicians.

“Our own research shows that we have the support of highly informed voters,” said Chris Davey, a spokesman for the Citizens Not Politicians campaign.

Proponents of the ballot question are encouraged by the BGSU/YouGov poll, but they’re not taking anything for granted.

“It’s going to be close because of the lies and terrible wording on the ballot,” Davey said.

Citizens Not Politicians had a huge financial advantage from the start, spending at least $25 million on television advertising, including one featuring Republican former Ohio Supreme Court Chief Justice Maureen O’Connor, who sided with Democrats on the court. , rejecting the Republican Party displays cards seven times.

O’Connor is now one of the authors of the first issue and its most prominent supporter.

“She is a lifelong Republican and believes partisan gerrymandering is wrong,” Davey said. “A very effective voice for our side, well known to our highly informed voters.”

RELATED: Low-Information Voters May Help Ohio’s Redistricting Amendment 1 Sink or Swim

Davey said Citizens Not Politicians has another $6 million to $7 million to spend on television advertising in the final week of the campaign. The campaign against Issue 1 was able to spend just $4.5 million on ads urging a “no” vote.

Republicans can’t compete in the money game. Their only hope is to persuade their constituents and independent voters to vote against the first question.

And they don’t seem to be doing a very good job of it.