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National Hurricane Center Caribbean watch area that could become Patty

Posted on by L. Dreeye
National Hurricane Center Caribbean watch area that could become Patty

The Atlantic Basin may not be so easily hibernated this year as the globe-trotting troublemaker and the hot Caribbean pump up energy in the final weeks of hurricane season.

National Hurricane Center meteorologists have been monitoring the area in the southwestern Caribbean Sea for potential tropical development since Oct. 26. The downdraft jet stream is expected to revive it as a gaping area of ​​low pressure.

From there, a moving cluster of thunderstorms called the Madden-Julian Oscillation could spawn at least one more named storm in the season, which officially ends Nov. 30. The hurricane center estimates there is a 40% chance of forming at least a tropical depression seven days into Wednesday, October 30th. The next name on the list of 2024 hurricanes is Patty.

The tropics usually freeze in November. Cold fronts sweep into the Gulf of Mexico with damaging winds and dry air that kills anything bubbling in the water that’s still warm enough to nurture a storm, like an egg in an incubator.

But this year, Caribbean waters in some areas are 5.4 degrees warmer than normal, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which circles the globe every 30 to 60 days, is unusually intense, said Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach. It upgraded Hurricane Beryl to a disgraceful Category 5 in July and spawned five hurricanes in 12 days in late September and early October – Helen, Isaac, Kirk, Leslie and Milton.

“Everyone is on edge,” Klotzbach said of the area being monitored by the NHC. “And the billion-dollar question is whether it will reach the US, but it’s too early to know. Anything could happen.”

More: Hurricane Milton brought unusually violent tornadoes to Florida with deadly precision

Climate science is on Florida’s side.

Only three November hurricanes have hit the Sunshine State dating back to the late 1800s.

Most recently, on November 10, the massive 2022 Hurricane Nicole made landfall near Vero Beach as a Category 1 storm. Storm surge of up to 5 feet hit the central and northeast coast of Florida, destroying coastal buildings and homes, but no deaths in the U.S. were directly linked to Nicole, according to a post-storm NHC report.

The National Center for Environmental Information estimated damage from Nicole at $1 billion.

In 1985, on November 21, just four days before Thanksgiving, Hurricane Kate made landfall near the Mexican Panhandle as a Category 2 storm.

The NHC report on Kate noted that the atmosphere in mid-November 1985 was more like late September and early October, the peak times of hurricane season. By the time Kate reached the eastern Gulf of Mexico, a frontal trough approaching from the west picked her up and sent her to Florida.

Kate was responsible for five deaths and drove approximately 100,000 people from their homes during her approach. Apalachicola’s oyster beds were destroyed.

The third November hurricane to hit Florida was the 1935 storm known as “Yankee” due to its unusual approach from the north.

Yankee originated near Bermuda, rode along the lower Bermuda Hills toward the Carolina coast, but was then picked up clockwise by another high-pressure system that pushed it into Miami as a Category 2 hurricane on November 4. .

“We’ve always said that we think this tropical season could be prolonged,” said AccuWeather lead hurricane forecaster Alex DaSilva. “I think a hurricane somewhere in the Caribbean could very well happen.”

He said the potential impact on the United States would not occur until Election Day on Nov. 5. The National Weather Service’s seven-day forecast in Miami is heavy on pressure, so South Florida will see mostly clear skies through at least Tuesday.

If something tropical makes landfall in the U.S., it won’t be until late next week or the weekend of Nov. 9, DaSilva said.

And he’s especially concerned about the situation in South Florida. A storm moving into the Gulf of Mexico could be pushed onto the southwest coast by the jet stream, while a system in the far western Atlantic could be pushed onto the southeast coast by high pressure over the east coast.

“Normally when storms arise in the Caribbean in November, they move north and out to sea. But of course, things are not always typical,” DaSilva said.

More: Massive amounts of foamy debris hit Florida’s east coast beaches after Hurricane Milton.

This hurricane season has been unusual, with a record early formation of Category 5 Beryl, a week-long pause in August and early September, followed by an outbreak of 10 tropical storms or hurricanes until October 20, when tiny Hurricane Oscar made landfall in Cuba.

A total of 15 named storms formed, including 10 hurricanes. Five hurricanes struck the continental United States, including Beryl, Francine, Debbie, Helen and Milton. That’s one shy of the record of six hurricanes that made landfall in the U.S. in 1886 and 1985.

“We just have to realize that hurricane season is not over,” Klotzbach said. “We’re looking at the late season in the Caribbean and conditions there are looking pretty favorable.”

Kimberly Miller is a Florida journalist for The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA Today Network. She covers real estate, weather and the environment. Subscribe to The Dirt for weekly real estate reviews. If you have news tips, send them to [email protected]. Help support our local journalism; subscribe today.