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Predicting the starting five and rotation

Posted on by L. Dreeye
Predicting the starting five and rotation

With just a few days until the UVA women’s basketball season debuts, let’s predict Wahoos’ rotation this year. With key players such as Cam Taylor and Sam Brunel gone, the newcomers will have to step up if they are to break through and make a try in March.

With 40-minute games and five players, head coach Amaka Agugua-Hamilton will need to commit to 200 minutes per game. Coach Mox is known for her deep rotations, often rotating up to 11 players in ACC games. This season, those minutes will be split between seven starters and seven returners.

Seven players return from last year’s team, led by Kimora Johnson and Paris Clark, who averaged more than 30 minutes of play in the final five games of the season. Jillian Brown played 17 minutes per game last season but will unfortunately miss the entire year with an ACL injury suffered in May. That leaves Yonta Vaughn and Olivia McGee as the remaining members of the backcourt. We can expect both to play more consistent roles this season. In the front court, Edessa Noyan is poised for a breakout year, and Taylor Lauterbach will also look to take a step forward. Collectively, these women worked 112 minutes.

The Hoos need to replace 88 minutes from last season, 75 minutes previously taken from Cam Taylor, London Clarkson, Sam Brunel and Alexia Smith. Taylor’s 22 mpg in particular will be difficult to fill, as her late-game foul troubles have often impacted results. Cady Pauley (5 mpg) and Kaydan Lawson (8 mpg) will also be on the sidelines this year. Additionally, Mir McLean’s transfer to Maryland left the ‘Hawks with a very small group of players returning to the front court.

To fill those minutes, the coaching staff added four transfers, including three who are 6-foot-4 or taller. Latasha Lattimore will bring athleticism to the Mox attack, while Riley Grace (6’4″) and Hawa Doumbouya (6’7″) will add much-needed size in the paint; although Coach Mox confirmed that Doumbouya will redshirt this season. Breonna Hurd, a highly touted freshman, rounds out the frontcourt. Freshmen Camryn Kitchen and Payton Dunbar are both reassigned to the 2024 class, but both appear to be eyeing a redshirt season. Finally, Casey Valenti-Paea, a transfer from Long Beach State, will provide key depth at the guard position.

With three expected redshirts (one confirmed) and one season-ending injury, the remaining 10 players on the roster can expect to be included in Mox’s rotation to some degree. Without further ado, let’s predict the starting lineup. Based on these projections, I’m guessing that players like Paris Clarke, who were left out of the Blue-White clash, are fully healthy.

Kimora Johnson – 33 mpg
Paris Clark – 31 mpg
Yonta Vaughn – 20 mpg
Edessa Noyan – 23 mpg
Latasha Lattimore – 25 mpg

Mo Johnson’s impressive freshman season deserves more credit; After a year in the system, fans can expect even better results this season. Paris Clark started last season slowly but perked up in ACC play, playing up to 37 minutes against Louisville last season. Johnson and Clark joined Coach Mox at ACC Media Day and appear destined to lead the team. I expect the small forward position to fluctuate throughout the season, but ultimately expect Yonta Vaughn to take over the starting role. Readers might be surprised to not see Olivia McGee on this list, but Coach Mox leaned on Vaughn’s experience for the last few games of the season. Additionally, when asked about the dark horse player at ACC media day, Mo Johnson thanked Vaughn, saying, “I think (she’s) really going to open people’s eyes this year.” That’s enough for me to give her credit, but I expect both to play key roles this season.

The forward and center positions will be critical for this team. Edessa Noyan appears to have made a big leap in the offseason, as evidenced by her 11 points in the Blue-White clash. We can expect a big step forward from her in an important role. Finally, I predict that Latasha Lattimore will take the Center position. Readers may remember her strong 10-point, nine-rebound performance for JPJ last season as a guest. We hope to see more of that this season. Depending on the matchups, we may see Mox go with a bigger lineup and insert Lauterbach, but I expect this to be the most common five.

It’s worth noting that last season, 10 (!) different players started at least a game, and nine started at least three. We can certainly expect Coach Mox to tinker with these lineups throughout the season, and we won’t see the regular starting lineup solidify until February or March. With that said, let’s look at the other key players.

Olivia McGee – 20 mpg
Breona Heard – 15 mpg
Taylor Lauterbach – 13 mpg
Riley Grace – 10 mpg
Casey Valenti-Paea – 10 mpg

There are a lot of rookies on this list, so I wouldn’t be surprised if we see one or more of them emerge from the starting lineup from time to time. Olivia McGee was incredibly strong last year but fell out of the rotation almost entirely by the end of last season. I expect McG to endure his portion of The Mo and O Show and find more stability in season two. Paris Clark mentioned Breonna Heard as her dark horse this season, so don’t be surprised if she brings a spark to the freshman this year.

Next Monday (Nov. 4th) we’ll see the Hoo vs. American game for the first time at 7:00 pm on ACC Network Extra. Will these predictions be confirmed? Only one way to find out.

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