The voters Allan needs to win over on housing issues are fickle and growing in number.

Until recently, Labor relied mainly on support from tenants. Pollsters, including former Labor campaign strategist Kos Samaras, say renters tend to favor left-wing politics and swing between the Greens and Labour.

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With Labor losing support in its traditional suburban heartland of Melbourne, cementing support from tenants in the inner and mid-burbs will be crucial to its re-election bid.

Insiders believe higher levels of renters in places like Ashwood and Box Hill will boost the government’s chances of holding on to these mid-sized suburbs at the next election. But voting patterns among renters are inconsistent, particularly among those under 40, whose values ​​do not always fully align with those of the main parties.

At the last state elections, seats such as Footscray, Preston and Northcote came close to being claimed by Greens campaigning for a fairer housing agenda – and are expected to come under heavy attack again in 2026.

The problem for Allan is that efforts to increase housing supply will take time, meaning the government cannot guarantee its efforts will convince this powerful voting bloc by next election day.

The government predicts that 230,000 additional rental properties will be added to the Victorian market over the next 10 years, including 70,000 as a result of government measures.

But the start is bad.

Between March 2023 and March 2024, the number of active bonds held by the Housing Bond Authority fell by 20,000, suggesting that landlords (and their rental properties) are exiting the market.

Union officials say the rent reforms announced this week were specifically designed to “plug the hole” for tenants while the government works to encourage further development.

On Wednesday, the Labor Party announced a ban on no-fault evictions, caps on fees for breaking leases, and fines for landlords caught making dubious claims on tenant deposits. All renters policies sold make this difficult. But if these changes don’t actually improve conditions and housing opportunities by November 2026, the government could be in trouble. They will also have to ensure that any efforts to improve rental security do not scare off investors.

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While Labour’s commitment to encouraging development and increasing the rental stock is laudable, industry experts believe many of the government’s rent changes go too far and risk driving out landlords who are already exiting the market at an unprecedented rate.

So far, the Labor Party has also failed to weaponize some of its existing promises to improve the lives of tenants. Legislation promising to close a loophole allowing agents and landlords to accept applications for rental properties has faced delays.

Despite these obstacles, Labor MPs remain confident the proposed housing package will be a shared benefit to its re-election bid, especially at a time when the coalition is flirting with NIMBYs and the Greens are fighting among themselves.

However, reform of the housing system will be a long process. It is vital that Labor gets the balance right, and quickly.

Annika Smethurst is the state’s political editor.

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