The US election system is secure. But human nature is vulnerable

WASHINGTON — Hacking local election systems in the United States will not be easy, and secretly changing vote results on a scale large enough to change the outcome of a presidential race will be impossible, election officials said, thanks to decentralized systems and paper records. for nearly every ballot, exhaustive audits, due process and decades of work by America’s election officials, volunteers and citizens.

But foreign actors and domestic extremist groups looking to interfere in next week’s elections may be targeting a much weaker link: voters’ perceptions and emotions. Those intent on undermining trust in U.S. democracy won’t have to change their votes if they can convince enough Americans to distrust the results of the vote.

It’s a possible scenario that particularly concerns intelligence analysts and officials tasked with protecting America’s elections: An adversary attempts to hack a state or local election system, then releases a document—possibly fake or even publicly available material—and purports to be evidence. about vote fraud.

Or a video is created that shows someone allegedly hacking into a ballot scanner, voting machine, or government voter registration system. But this did not happen, and it would not be true.

This is called perception hacking, which may or may not involve actually disrupting voting systems, but is done to make it appear as if it happened. In some cases, minor information may be stolen—enough to make the video appear legitimate—but this does not change the vote. A related threat involves fake footage purporting to show election workers destroying ballots.

In any case, the goal is the same: to cause confusion, mistrust and fear.

In recent years, governments at all levels have worked to strengthen election infrastructure. However, the human brain remains difficult to protect.

“I think it’s almost certainly going to happen,” said former CIA political analyst Adam Darrah, discussing the risk of perception hacking.

Darrah, now vice president of intelligence at cybersecurity company ZeroFox, says misleading people into thinking election systems are vulnerable is much easier than actually hacking them. “This is a way to cause panic. We are very technically sound. Our emotional stability, our hypersensitivity, is still a problem.”

Small margins of victory or delays in vote counting could raise the risk that perception hacking could deceive large numbers of voters, further polarizing the electorate, increasing the risk of political violence and potentially complicating the transfer of power in January.

Intelligence officials warned last week that Russia and Iran could consider encouraging violent protests in the US after the election. The national intelligence community and private analysts agree that while the Kremlin supports former President Donald Trump, Moscow’s ultimate goal is to divide Americans and undermine U.S. support for Ukraine and the NATO alliance.

America’s adversaries are focusing on disinformation in part because they understand the country’s election infrastructure is too secure to be successfully hacked, officials say.

Despite intelligence officials’ findings, both Russia and Iran have rejected claims that they are seeking to influence the US election.

“We have never interfered, do not interfere and do not intend to interfere,” a spokesman for the Russian Embassy in Washington wrote in an email to The Associated Press.

Even without the involvement of a foreign power, isolated stories of long lines at polling places, ballot mix-ups or other irregularities can be seen as evidence that the election cannot be trusted.

This occurred in 2020 as Trump escalated his claims of problems with the election, leading to the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol by his supporters attempting to disrupt the certification of the election.

The Republican former president has spent months laying the groundwork to challenge this year’s election results if he loses. And he tried to convince his supporters that the only way he could lose was if Democrats cheated, urging them to achieve a victory “too big to fake.”

“They are cheating,” Trump said at a rally in Michigan last month. “That’s the only way to lose because they cheat. They cheat like hell.”

As in 2020, the days immediately following the election are likely to be the most critical as results are announced and Americans come to the end of a contentious race.

That’s when authoritarian countries or domestic anti-democratic groups will seek to stoke mistrust by trying to galvanize people into action, says Paul Barrett, a New York University law professor who studies online discourse and polarization.

“They are happy to see Americans at the throats of other Americans,” Barrett said. “We saw this in 2021 and I am very concerned that we will see a repeat.”

In response, homeland security and election officials across the country began debunking misinformation and quickly debunking rumors. Top intelligence officials gave several briefings outlining external threats, while cybersecurity and election officials explained why election systems are secure.

Last week, a video began circulating on social media that purportedly showed someone destroying mail ballots in Pennsylvania. Bipartisan election officials in Bucks County quickly refuted the video, and intelligence officials linked it to a Russian campaign behind other videos aimed at smearing Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.

“This video was debunked pretty quickly on several news sites, and I know Bucks County immediately came forward and explained why it was fake and why voters should trust it,” said Kim Wyman, the former U.S. Secretary of State. Washington State, who also worked for the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency.

“But the problem is that it exists now,” she said. “And we know that it will continue to spread until today and perhaps until Inauguration Day.”

Americans can help prevent successful perception hacking by stopping the further spread of election fraud. Disinformation experts urge voters to consult multiple sources of information, be skeptical of anonymous claims on social media and ask state and local officials for the facts.

Uncertainty and emotions will run high in the days after the vote ends—precisely the conditions foreign adversaries and domestic extremists need to undermine trust.

“Our foreign adversaries are seeking to attack our democratic process to achieve their own goals, and we need the help of all Americans to prevent them from succeeding,” said CISA Senior Advisor Kate Conley. “Americans must have confidence that their votes will be counted as cast. They should also know that our foreign adversaries will try to make them believe otherwise.”

“We encourage everyone to remain vigilant, check the information they consume, and rely on reliable sources such as state and local election officials,” she added.