As early voting begins, Republicans across Florida are rapidly surpassing Democratic turnout.

After the first day of early in-person voting, Republicans in many Florida counties surpassed the significant statewide turnout lead that Democrats had steadily built over the past month through mail-in voting.

Early voting in much of Florida entered a second day Tuesday as Republicans began celebrating their achievement in widening the turnout margin. Fresh Take Floridanews service operated by the University of Florida College of Journalism and Communications tracking real-time county data and analyze it for trends and patterns.

On Monday, Democrats were ahead of Republicans in 66 of Florida’s 67 counties, leading by about 6% in turnout and leading by about 65,500 mail ballots. The GOP reversed the turnout margin by the end of the day and extended its lead on Tuesday. More than 2 million votes have been cast so far, compared to the 11 million votes cast in the 2020 presidential race in Florida.

“At the end of the day, it’s all about turnout,” GOP Chairman Evan Power wrote on social media. “These early numbers make it clear that Florida Republicans are energized to vote.”

On Tuesday, Democrats remained ahead in some of Florida’s most populous urban counties: Broward, Hillsborough, Leon, Miami-Dade, Orange, Osceola, Palm Beach, Pinellas and Sarasota. In Collier County in southwest Florida, which is heavily Republican, turnout was low. In heavily Democratic Duval County, home to Jacksonville, Republicans voted in unexpectedly higher numbers this week.

Even with Election Day still two weeks away, a sharp shift in voter turnout in favor of the GOP could signal gains for Republicans in their races. It also fueled the view that Florida is becoming an increasingly red state and GOP voters are choosing to vote in person rather than by mail.

It raised questions about whether Democrats were enthusiastic enough about their candidates and issues to bother voting this year, and how ballots from Florida’s significant number of independent voters could influence the election results.

It is unclear to what extent this year’s results were the result of a 2023 law passed by the Republican-controlled Florida Legislature requiring voters to request a new ballot before each election. Before the change, a voter could obtain a mail-in ballot by submitting one request every four years.

“We want to see a few days before we start drawing conclusions about what the state of turnout is and the state of the race in Florida,” said University of Florida political science professor Michael McDonald, who studies voting and elections.

Nationally, nearly 20 million people have already voted in the election, according to McDonald’s. research. Among states that identify the political affiliation of early voters, about 45% were Democrats and about 34% were Republicans. Former President Donald Trump, who once viewed mail voting as unreliable, is urging Republicans to vote early.

Polls show Trump with a comfortable lead in Florida. The U.S. Senate race and important votes on recreational marijuana and abortion rights were more competitive.

The overall shift in turnout this week reinforced beliefs about growing conservative sentiment in Florida among registered voters, fueled in part by the large number of Republicans moving here from other states. The number of registered GOP voters officially outnumbered registered Democrats by more than 1 million earlier this summer, the largest margin for either party since the late 1980s.

In Florida, where there are about 14 million registered active voters, about 32% are Democrats, 39% are Republicans and 29% are not affiliated with or registered with a minor party.

Before in-person voting began Monday, with Democrats still leading with mail-in ballots, Democratic leaders predicted their candidates would be competitive on Election Day. Even though the deadline to register new voters for this election expired earlier this month, volunteers worked to increase turnout, Florida Democratic Party Chairwoman Nikki Fried said.

“We feel really encouraged by the work that has been done to get us to this point,” she said.

Democrats in Florida have traditionally led in turnout before early in-person voting began due to their voters’ comfort with mail-in ballots, while Republicans have tended to catch up because they prefer voting in person, especially on Election Day.

Pinellas County, home to St. Petersburg, is known as a leader, with voters correctly predicting the outcome of presidential races in all but one election since 1980. Democratic chair.

Pinellas County was known for having some of the largest absentee voting in the state. During the August primary, 78% of all votes were cast by mail. The current statewide return rate for mail-in ballots was 39%. As of Tuesday afternoon, the county’s return rate was below average at about 35%.

Meanwhile, early voting there was extended due to hurricane damage, and election officials moved more than two dozen polling places.

“A lot of things just went out the window,” Griffith said.

In South Florida, the state’s largest Democratic stronghold, party leaders appealed to black and Hispanic male voters, as well as young voters under 27, said Sen. Shevrin Jones, D-Miami Gardens. These groups tended to vote in smaller numbers.

“We want to talk to people who are confused or sometimes not involved at all,” Jones said. ___

This article was produced by Fresh Take Florida, a news service of the University of Florida College of Journalism and Communications. The reporter can be reached by phone [email protected].

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