Verdict: Cox plate

Racing.com’s Brent Zerafa explains why your horse may or may not win the Cox Cup.

1. Mr. Brightside

Why He Can Win: A proven Group 1 athlete in the weight class and has had the perfect training before stepping onto the Cox platform. Placed second in this race last year when Romantic Warrior hit him on the nose. The perfect run cards are behind the pace and should now be at their peak.

Why he can’t win: The record suggests he’s better in the mile, although he lost this race by a small margin last year. Also can be more effective on soft/hard tracks, especially at this level.

2. Forecast

Why he can win: Brings a high international level to the race, having finished third to Equinox in the G1 Tenno Sho in Japan last October, before several close encounters with Romantic Warrior at G1 level in Hong Kong. His best form is on dry tracks and he boasts an impressive 10:7-1-1 record on his first outing.

Why He Can’t Win: It’s never been easy for him to travel and perform at his best, so his performances in Japan or Hong Kong could easily be appreciated. Breaking through barriers can be slow and can be costly.

3. Kovalitsa

Why he can win: Ran well, taking 1.5kg more than Ceolwulf at Epsom, and finished strongly last start in the Hill Stakes, suggesting he is now poised to reach fourth over 2000m.

Why he can’t win: He needs to reach the peak of his career if he wants to win the Cox Cup against horses who have achieved his success in the past.

4. Royal patronage

Why he can win: Has performed well for Guy Waterhouse and Adrian Bott since arriving in Australia and brings back good form for his age from Sydney. Drawn for a perfect run, trailing the likely leader in Pride Of Jenni.

Why he can’t win: Lead and looked to have a chance at the last start of the Hill Stakes and was not strong at the end of the 1900m. It may be doubtful that we will make it past the difficult 2040m altitude if pressure is applied early.

5. Docklands

Why he can win: Finished second in the G1 Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot to Charyn, who has gone on to win two more G1s in Europe this season. Gotta run smoothly over the fence with Blake Shinn in the saddle.

Why he can’t win: Only one has run over a mile and lost in the Juddmonte International Stakes at York. The best form is clearly at an altitude of 1600m.

6. Jenny’s pride

Why she can win: A three-time G1 winner and recent training has shown she is more than capable of winning at this level over 2000m. Looks like a clear leader and will be hard to beat.

Why she can’t win: Not ideal preparation: just a week ago she had a tough run in Sydney and now she has to drive back to Melbourne and back to the Cox Plate.

7. Via Sistina

Why she can win: Already a three-time G1 winner in Australia from just five starts, including an impressive victory in her last start in the Turnbull Stakes, defeating Caulfield Cup runner-up Buckaroo. The 2000m is clearly her favorite distance, with five wins and four podium finishes from 11 starts.

Why she can’t win: It’s hardly been a perfect week considering what happened on the track Tuesday, when she ditched James MacDonald and went three more laps on her own. Stable is confident she can still perform at her best, but only time will tell if that will make a difference.

8. Expansion

Why he can win: Three-year-olds weigh an attractive 49.5kg compared to older horses and he shows similar performance to previous Cox Plate three-year-old winners. Beaten as favorite for the Caulfield Guineas, but his run was full of merit for a horse finishing third over 2000m.

Why he can’t win: He’s yet to race further than a mile, and while it looks like he’ll appreciate it, there must be some doubt given he’s up against experienced gallopers who have proven themselves on the trip.

9. Evaporate

Why he can win: Finished ahead of Broadsided in the Caulfield Guineas and one would assume he had a tougher time on the trip given he was almost three wide over the trip. Undefeated in three starts at Moonee Valley.

Why he can’t win: Also to go over a mile, you have to wonder if he’ll be effective at the Cox Plate distance.

Choice:

2. Forecast

7. Via Sistina

8. Expansion

6. Jenny’s pride