Iran’s nuclear program cannot be bombed

The Middle East is on the brink of a full-scale regional war. Israel recently launched retaliatory strikes against Iran. Although Israel has avoided attacks on Iranian nuclear and oil facilities, there is still a risk that Israeli and Iranian back-and-forth missile attacks will drag the United States into another war in the Middle East.

A number of people, such as former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and John Bolton, have encouraged – and continue to encourage – the Israeli military to attack Iran’s nuclear capabilities. With the JCPOA dead in the water, hawks argue that Israel’s only option to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons is war. However, arguments in favor of striking Iran’s nuclear capabilities are irrelevant. An attack would not lead to a dramatic reversal of the program and would likely convince Iran that it needs nuclear weapons to remain secure. Ultimately, while Iran’s acquisition of nuclear capabilities is not ideal, it would not spell disaster for Israel or the United States.

Proponents of a pre-emptive strike on Iran vastly overestimate Israel’s ability to destroy Iran’s entire nuclear capability. Military intelligence is always imperfect, so it is unlikely that Israel will be able to know where all of Iran’s nuclear capabilities are located. For example, Iran has likely dispersed its nuclear research technology and facilities throughout the country to make it difficult to target. Although Iran has only two enrichment facilities capable of enriching uranium to the level necessary to possess a nuclear weapon, Iran has strengthened its nuclear facilities – at least one of them is buried so deep underground that even US airstrikes are unlikely to destroy it . This makes it difficult for Israel to detect and destroy these nuclear capabilities and will require US involvement to have a better chance of destroying them.

Even in the extremely unlikely scenario that Israel destroys all of Iran’s nuclear capabilities, Iran will still retain the necessary know-how to develop nuclear weapons. This is also why nuclear weapons will never go away; the absence of nuclear weapons does not exclude the possibility of a country creating them. If Israel tried to forcefully denuclearize Iran, it would convince Tehran that the only way to be truly secure was to acquire a nuclear arsenal—the great equalizer in international politics.

Supporters of Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities also argue that Tehran will use nuclear weapons to destroy Israel. Looking at Iran’s past rhetoric about its hope to destroy Israel, it is easy to understand why many are worried about this. However, it is worth studying not only the rhetoric, but also the behavior of Iran. Power—especially military power—puts limits on even the most zealous countries and leaders. Israel has enough nuclear weapons to safely launch a second strike on Iran. This situation would jeopardize Iran’s survival and deter it from launching a nuclear attack on Israel. Iran’s behavior strongly suggests that it will not start a war in which its end would be inevitable.

Finally, those who support pre-emptive strikes on Iran also claim that Iran will use its nuclear arsenal as nuclear blackmail as a deterrent to regime change, allowing it to take more risks with its conventional forces and proxies. As Kenneth Waltz wrote: “The main reason America resists the proliferation of nuclear weapons is that if weak countries have them, they will limit our style.”

However, this argument fails in the face of military capabilities and realities on the ground. Looking at Iran’s conventional weapons, it will not be able to win a protracted war against Israel and will not be able to dominate the Middle East. Iran’s proxies are also not providing much help since Israel is currently attacking them and they gain little political power for Tehran other than a level of deterrence. Israel’s beheadings of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders only heightens Tehran’s fears and increases its incentives to acquire nuclear weapons.

None of this suggests that the world should simply ignore concerns about a nuclear Iran. These weapons are the most destructive in human history, and we should be cautious when any new nuclear player enters the scene. But, to paraphrase Machiavelli, prudence involves choosing the least of the worst options. And in this case, the least worst option for Israel and America is to avoid preemptive strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Benjamin D. Giltner is a defense and foreign policy analyst based in Washington. He received a master’s degree in international relations from the George H. W. Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University. His research interests include U.S. military strategy and posture, great power competition, and nuclear deterrence.

Image: Andreas Zeitler / Shutterstock.com.