Three reasons why the Packers will beat the Lions

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Green Bay Packers Underdogs with a rating of 2.5 points at FanDuel Sportsbook for Sunday’s NFC North showdown against the Detroit Lions.

How rare is this? This will be the 50th home game under Matt LaFleur. It has been the underdog seven times, including last year’s 34-20 loss to the Lions.

Here are three reasons why the Packers will beat the Lions this time around.

1. Josh Jacobs

There’s a reason Jacobs didn’t get enough hits in some games. This is so that he can show his best qualities in games like this.

Whether it’s Jordan Love or quarterback Malik Willis, the offense starts with Jacobs. Jacobs led the way in a win over the Colts in Week 2 when Willis started and last week in Jacksonville when Willis played most of the second half.

Detroit’s defense is its only weakness. Well, “weakness” may be a strong word, but the Lions rank 22nd with 4.66 yards per carry allowed this season and 19th on the season. Schedule-adjusted expected scores. They have allowed more than 130 yards in three of their last four games.

Fixing that was a priority this week.

“Yeah, that’s something we’re taking note of,” Lions coach Dan Campbell told reporters before Wednesday’s practice. “We have to be able to attack the perimeter, establish the lead and allow our fans to move and make plays. We’ll dial it in (at Thursday’s practice), bring it, and that’s the best way.

“Do you want to get better at it, do you want to work on it? You should work on this at full speed, like a game situation, and do some live reps. So, we’re going to keep doing that because we know teams are going to keep attacking us that way.”

Jacobs leads the NFL in rushing and touches and ranks fourth in rushing yards. Of 44 backs with at least 50 carries, Jacobs ranks eighth with 3.52 yards after contact, according to Pro Football Focus, and 10th in passing percentage, according to Sports Info Solutions.

Detroit’s defense ranks 27th in passing percentage, according to PFF.

“Very physical. They fly as one,” Jacobs said. “They have a lot of guys who have played a lot of ball at a high level. This will be one of those games. This will be a playoff type game. Let’s see. Let’s see how it goes.”

Jacobs has broken 31 tackles this season, compared to 28 all of last year, according to PFF. His yards after contact are the best mark of his career.

It’s not just Jacobs. Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn had to deal with the Packers’ rushing attack led by Aaron Jones. Jacobs brings a new dimension to Green Bay’s offense, Glenn said.

“There’s something about getting a back with balls on the wall and changing the mindset,” Glenn told reporters Thursday. “To see what he is like in the NFL and how brutal and physical and a runner he is, you just know their offensive line is looking forward to locking down that man. There are nuances in the way they operate in terms of violence and the physicality of the game because of who they have on the ball.

“So, it’s going to be a challenge for us and we have to do everything we can to stop it because if you allow that to happen, it’s not good for the defense to allow the team to have the ball and then maybe have the play action passes that they have yes, with the receivers they have. So we need to do a good job in that aspect.”

2. Jayden Reid

One of those receivers is Jaden Reed, who has emerged as the Packers’ biggest threat. “This guy is a playmaker dude,” Campbell said. Reed leads the teams with 31 receptions, 507 yards and a 16.4-yard average.

According to PFF, 65 receivers were targeted at least 30 times. Reed is second with 8.5 yards per catch and tied for 15th with six missed tackles. His 15 explosive plays (runs and catches) are just three behind Derrick Henry’s league-best mark.

What’s notable about this game is that Reed did most of his damage in the slot, where he is eighth with 21 receptions, second with 381 yards, second with 18.1 yards per catch, fourth with three touchdowns, sixth with 8.2 YAC per catch and second with a 142.0 passer rating when on target.

The Lions are vulnerable in the slot with Amik Robertson. Of the 28 defensive backs who have played at least 100 snaps, he ranks fifth in yards per snap, third in yards per snap and has a passer rating of 101.1, according to PFF.

Fantasy football isn’t real football, but the Lions allowed the most fantasy football points to slot receivers. according to Razzball.

In the second round of the 2023 draft, the Lions reached a deal with the Packers for cornerback Brian Branch. The Packers traded one more time before selecting Reed.

“I think the vision was what you see now with the way he plays,” Campbell said. “That’s what you knew; He was competitive, explosive, had speed. … He can find it, sticky hands, feisty blocker, competitive. Dude, he will chase you in the Run game. And he’s a very smart, very smart player. “He’s coming into his own and continuing to get better, and to me he’s a strength and we’re going to have to be ready for him as we are for the other receivers.”

3. Conclusions

The Packers are 6-2 thanks in large part to defense Jeff Hafley, who ranks first with 19 tackles, first with nine fumbles recovered and second with 10 interceptions.

Detroit, on the other hand, has the second-highest turnover margin at plus-10. Only three teams have fewer prizes than Detroit’s five. The Lions have only lost one fumble and Jared Goff hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 3.

The Packers have what they call a “ball rally” to emphasize the importance of taking care of the football. Leos make a similar emphasis. So much so that one Titans staffer tried to learn the secrets of success from Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson after Detroit won the turnover battle 4-0 last week.

“Coaches talk about it all the time,” Johnson told reporters Thursday. “It gets old, it becomes redundant, but at some point these guys, I think, hear it somewhere in the back of their minds when they carry the ball down the field.

“We now have a defender who plays very smart and reliable football. He takes care of the ball. If it gives it to him on the field, he will give it up; he has no problem snatching a dagger or throwing a pillar into a field. But the teams we continue to see have all this depth, he’ll test that. So, he’s just very smart and deliberate in the way he attacks coverage now. So it keeps the ball out of danger from an interception standpoint.”

Goff is playing at about the highest level imaginable, but over the last two games he’s been sacked eight times and fumbled four times. So there could be opportunities for a sack/streak type of move a la Edgerrin Cooper, who contributed to last week’s win in Jacksonville.

“I think it starts early, like any game,” Hafley said. “If you can’t stop running, it’s going to be a long day. Their offensive line is probably the best we’ve seen, and they have two really good running backs. So, we really need to protect the run. They are explosive, powerful and their offensive line is really good.

“They built it right. They built it from the inside out, but it starts with the running. Obviously, they have good receivers, they have a really good tight end, and the quarterback is as effective as any quarterback in the NFL right now. I think they coach very well. I think their entire staff does a great job with their scheme, and what they’ve done with the quarterback this year in terms of efficiency has been very impressive.”

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